Streaming proposal "target flow" rate calculation

[lkngtn]

Streaming proposal calculations don't seem to make sense:

My understanding of streaming proposals is that the UI will show both the current stream rate and the target stream rate, and these are calculated based on the current conviction and a projection of the conviction after some period of time (to allow for conviction to accrue or decay). So one would expect that these numbers would be equal or close to equal for proposals that have a steady amount of conviction?

However in the case of Pauls proposal (first image), it looks like conviction is decreasing (red in the bar chart), but that the target flow is higher than current flow... And in the case of the quest swarm proposal (second image) the conviction appears to be steady with no change in support indicated by the bar chart, and yet the flow rate calculation shows a large gap between current and target.