Files supporting R Ladies London workshop 24.10.2019 by Julia Shen
Please send questions & comments to julia.shen1 (at) lshtm (dot) ac (dot) uk
forecast: we will use the forecast::arima wrapper and related functions in this package, which enhance the base::arima function included in the default R stats library
tidyverse: recommended if not strictly necessary for practical exercises, though my tidying + dataviz processes use dplyr, ggplot2, etc
here: used for easier filepaths
-
Case DATA in "ARIMA-intro.csv"
-
... with more contextual metadata and calculations in "ARIMA-intro-meta.xlsx"
-
Case CODE in "ARIMA-intro.R" available 24 Oct 2019
-
Contextual and theoretical SLIDES, including important fundamentals of underlying statistical theory, in "ARIMA-slides.pdf" including a list of references and further useful reading available 24 Oct 2019
-
Original inspiration for this practice case comes from Mark Green et al's article "Could the rise in mortality rates since 2015 be explained by changes in the number of delayed discharges of NHS patients?"
in the BMJ Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health at https://jech.bmj.com/content/71/11/1068
... with many thanks to Mark at the University of Liverpool, and co-authors Danny Dorling, Jonathan Minton, and Kate E. Pickett for the applied example in English health geography that surfaces such important and interesting policy questions about service performance and equity. This is true even if our modelling methods for such complex links are more problematic than we would like. -
This README.md + MIT license for open-access, attributed usage of these materials - please minimise commercial gatekeeping
- ONS, Mid-year population estimates: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland
- ONS, Deaths registered monthly in England and Wales: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland
- NHS England and NHS Improvement, Delayed Transfers of Care (DTOCs) from August 2010 - present: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/delayed-transfers-of-care/
- Cheers for the R Ladies London team for collegial peer review and organisation, especially Emma Vestesson (@emmavestesson).
- Brava to Ruslana Dalinina for an excellent model ARIMA tutorial at https://blogs.oracle.com/datascience/introduction-to-forecasting-with-arima-in-r
... and bravos to Rob J Hyndman & George Athanasopoulos for their open textbook Forecasting: Principles and Practice at https://otexts.com/fpp2/ - Many thanks to the Health Foundation, UK Economic & Social Research Council, and LSHTM Public Health & Policy faculty, for funding and hosting me.