A linear regression model to forecasting the Italian new COVID-19 cases of next days.
The data are provided by the Italian Civil Protection and can be consulted here: https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19. New daily data are available from 18.00.
I predict the new COVID-19 italian cases for:
- Total cases
- New positive cases (hospitalized + home isolation)
- Daily intensive Care patients
The predictions are for the next 3 days.
- I fixed the polynomial degree, depending on the tasks mentioned above.
- Added daily intensive care patients to the task (from 30-03).
- Updated number of days to forecast.
Every day I will update the table with the number of cases actually verified and the model predictions for the next day.
| Data | Total cases | Total cases - prediction | New positive cases | New positive cases - prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16-03 | 27980 | 29070 | 2470 | 3329 |
| 17-03 | 31506 | 32202 | 2989 | 3107 |
| 18-03 | 35713 | 35365 | 2648 | 3256 |
| 19-03 | 41035 | 39514 | 4480 | 3054 |
| 20-03 | 47021 | 45447 | 4670 | 4042 |
| 21-03 | 53578 | 52559 | 4821 | 4739 |
| 22-03 | 59138 | 60380 | 3957 | 5215 |
| 23-03 | 63927 | 66679 | 3780 | 4961 |
| 24-03 | 69176 | 71134 | 3780 | 4614 |
| 25-03 | 74386 | 75374 | 3491 | 4224 |
| 26-03 | 80539 | 79570 | 4492 | 3842 |
| 27-03 | 86498 | 84926 | 4401 | 4037 |
| 28-03 | 92472 | 90641 | 3651 | 4106 |
| 29-03 | 97689 | 96544 | 3815 | 3778 |
| 30-03 | 101739 | 101754 | 1648 | 3592 |
| 31-03 | 105792 | 105501 | 2107 | 2477 |
| 01-04 | 110574 | 108659 | 2937 | 1860 |
| 02-04 | 115242 | 112405 | 2477 | 1736 |
| 03-04 | 119827 | 116523 | 2339 | 1469 |
| 04-04 | 124632 | 120889 | 2886 | 1227 |
| 05-04 | 128948 | 125679 | 2972 | 1275 |
| 06-04 | 132547 | 130346 | 1941 | 1367 |
| 07-04 | 135586 | 134393 | 880 | 1076 |
| 08-04 | 139422 | 137693 | 1195 | 482 |
| 09-04 | 143626 | 137693 | 1615 | 1727 |
| 10-04 | 147577 | 145435 | 1396 | 1514 |
| 11-04 | 152271 | 149761 | 1996 | 1287 |
| 12-04 | 156363 | 154779 | 1984 | 1203 |
| 13-04 | 159516 | 159775 | 1363 | 1128 |
| 14-04 | 162488 | 164062 | 675 | 953 |
| 15-04 | 165155 | 167776 | 1127 | 680 |
| 16-04 | 168941 | 170933 | 1189 | 519 |
| 17-04 | 172434 | 174528 | 355 | 389 |
| 18-04 | 175925 | 178234 | 809 | 138 |
| 19-04 | 178972 | 182022 | 486 | -8 |
| 20-04 | 181228 | 185582 | -20 | -187 |
| 21-04 | 183957 | 188495 | -528 | -423 |
| 22-04 | 187327 | 191288 | -10 | -709 |
| 23-04 | 189973 | 194413 | -851 | -884 |
| 24-04 | 192994 | 197343 | -321 | -1163 |
| 25-04 | 195351 | 200370 | -680 | -1331 |
| 26-04 | 197675 | 203088 | 256 | -1531 |
| 27-04 | 199414 | 205583 | -290 | -1574 |
| 28-04 | 201505 | 207607 | -608 | -1684 |
| 29-04 | 203591 | 209516 | -548 | -1824 |
| 30-04 | 205463 | 211367 | -3106 | -1938 |
| 01-05 | 207428 | 213084 | -608 | -2380 |
| 02-05 | 209328 | 214777 | -239 | -2449 |
| 03-05 | 210717 | 216441 | -525 | -2458 |
| 04-05 | 211938 | 217840 | -199 | -2499 |
| 05-05 | 213013 | 218984 | -1513 | -2490 |
| 06-05 | 214457 | 219892 | -6939 | -2641 |
| 07-05 | 215858 | 220837 | -1904 | -3444 |
| 08-05 | 217185 | 221812 | -1663 | -3566 |
| 09-05 | 218268 | 222796 | -3119 | -3644 |
| 10-05 | 219814 | 223690 | -1518 | -3883 |
| 11-05 | 219814 | 220508 | -836 | -3911 |
| 12-05 | 221216 | 221479 | -1222 | -3853 |
| 13-05 | 222104 | 222567 | -2809 | -3839 |
| 14-05 | 223096 | 223603 | -2017 | -4000 |
| 15-05 | 223885 | 224637 | -4370 | -4057 |
| 16-05 | 224760 | 225618 | -1883 | -4363 |
| 17-05 | 225435 | 226591 | -1836 | -4373 |
| 18-05 | 225886 | 227505 | -1798 | -4372 |
| 19-05 | 226699 | 228313 | -1424 | -4364 |
| 20-05 | Update at 18.00 | 229146 | Update at 18.00 | -1480 |
| Data | Daily intensive care | Daily intensive care - prediction |
|---|---|---|
| 30-03 | 75 | 108 |
| 31-03 | 42 | 90 |
| 01-04 | 12 | 66 |
| 02-04 | 20 | 40 |
| 03-04 | 15 | 19 |
| 04-04 | -74 | 1 |
| 05-04 | -17 | -34 |
| 06-04 | -79 | -51 |
| 07-04 | -106 | -78 |
| 08-04 | -99 | -107 |
| 09-04 | -88 | -130 |
| 10-04 | -108 | -147 |
| 11-04 | -116 | -165 |
| 12-04 | -38 | -182 |
| 13-04 | -83 | -182 |
| 14-04 | -74 | -189 |
| 15-04 | -107 | -194 |
| 16-04 | -43 | -203 |
| 17-04 | -79 | -216 |
| 18-04 | -124 | -225 |
| 19-04 | -98 | -224 |
| 20-04 | -62 | - 226 |
| 21-04 | -102 | -222 |
| 22-04 | -87 | -224 |
| 23-04 | -117 | -71 |
| 24-04 | -94 | -78 |
| 25-04 | -71 | -83 |
| 26-04 | -93 | -86 |
| 27-04 | -53 | -90 |
| 28-04 | -93 | -92 |
| 29-04 | -68 | -96 |
| 30-04 | -101 | -98 |
| 01-05 | -116 | -102 |
| 02-05 | -39 | -106 |
| 03-05 | -38 | -105 |
| 04-05 | -22 | -106 |
| 05-05 | -52 | -105 |
| 06-05 | -94 | -105 |
| 07-05 | -22 | -108 |
| 08-05 | -143 | -107 |
| 09-05 | -134 | -112 |
| 10-05 | -7 | -117 |
| 11-05 | -28 | -114 |
| 12-05 | -47 | -113 |
| 13-05 | -59 | -113 |
| 14-05 | -38 | -114 |
| 15-05 | -47 | -113 |
| 16-05 | -33 | -113 |
| 17-05 | -13 | -112 |
| 18-05 | -13 | -110 |
| 19-05 | -33 | -108 |
| 20-05 | Update at 18.00 | -107 |
