Introduction by Harvard Fat Chance
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Introduction
video link
Problem starter
tossing 6 coins or tossing 1 coin 6 times,
How to think of such problem?
Design a 6-coins tossing experiment
after tossing 6 coins, line them up
count the number of head, maybe 0, 1,2,3,4,5, or 6
this is just one trial
"the most likely number" assumes lots of trials
assume not just one trial, but many many trials
till we can notice or calculate out one out of the 7 numbers is more often or frequently appear than the others
possible solution
experiment 100 times, record the outcome
count the frequency of each outcome
pick up the most frequent as the most likely number
Why we have to solve it?
we always bet on uncertainty in real world in all things we do
Fat Chance
Statistics help us calculate the likelihood of exact 3 heads of this experiment?
statistics rest on probability rest on counting
Goal of this course
math mode of thought
analyze problems involving probability in real life
learn math or probability language with practice
Structure of the course
lectures and practices videos
prerequisites
High school math but desire to learn