Basic Statistics : Monte Carlo results confidence labels
Opened this issue · 1 comments
Are the confidence percentages for the results of the Monte Carlo simulation on the basic statistics spreadsheet round the wrong way?
I took this spreadsheet to be used as follows, given my data for number of things done per week, which I input into the "Your Data goes HERE" sheet, here are some confidence levels for how many things you will get done in the next X weeks. Where X weeks is the number I put in the "Sum n" Box on the Monte Carlo sheet.
If I understood and used the spreadsheet correctly then I would expect the number of stories I can expect to be done in a given number of weeks to decrease as I want I higher confidence, but I see more stories in the 95% confidence cell and less in the 5% confidence cell.
I'll take a look. Probably :) I always forget to 1-p for some of the probabilities. Thanks for pointing it out.