Check that combine_surprise_normalised isn't cheatig by using the observed rather than calculated surprises.
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Kazjon commented
While looking at something else I happened to notice that line 81 of eval_personalised is pulling from reader.cooccurrence, not from the estimated cooc matrix. I have to think about this a bit more, but wouldn't that mean it's cheating?
I'll take another look at this when I get a chance.