How to run this?

[NunoSempere]

I'm trying to run the scripts/model/poll_model_2020.stan. After compiling it with cmdstan, I keep getting the error:

$ ./poll_model_2020  method=sample  num_samples=1000 num_warmup=1000
method = sample (Default)
  sample
    num_samples = 1000 (Default)
    num_warmup = 1000 (Default)
    save_warmup = 0 (Default)
    thin = 1 (Default)
    adapt
      engaged = 1 (Default)
      gamma = 0.050000000000000003 (Default)
      delta = 0.80000000000000004 (Default)
      kappa = 0.75 (Default)
      t0 = 10 (Default)
      init_buffer = 75 (Default)
      term_buffer = 50 (Default)
      window = 25 (Default)
    algorithm = hmc (Default)
      hmc
        engine = nuts (Default)
          nuts
            max_depth = 10 (Default)
        metric = diag_e (Default)
        metric_file =  (Default)
        stepsize = 1 (Default)
        stepsize_jitter = 0 (Default)
    num_chains = 1 (Default)
id = 1 (Default)
data
  file =  (Default)
init = 2 (Default)
random
  seed = 4125478090 (Default)
output
  file = output.csv (Default)
  diagnostic_file =  (Default)
  refresh = 100 (Default)
  sig_figs = -1 (Default)
  profile_file = profile.csv (Default)
num_threads = 1 (Default)

Exception: variable does not exist; processing stage=data initialization; variable name=N_national_polls; base type=int (in '../us-potus-model/scripts/model/poll_model_2020.stan', line 2, column 2 to column 23)

My sense is that there is probably some data file that I'd have to feed into this, but, being a complete novice with stan, I'm not sure where to find it. If I use

$ ./poll_model_2020  method=sample  num_samples=1000 num_warmup=1000 data file=../../data/all_polls.csv

I still get the same error.

Any thoughts? Coming from https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2023/06/14/the-economist-is-hiring-a-political-data-scientist-to-do-election-modeling/, where Andrew mentioned that getting this model to run would be "trivial".

[elliottmorris]

If called from the R file, the 2016 version of the model will work for any day in the election. However the 2020 model was set up to show the code behind our approach, not to produce live predictions for the election (that would have created a slight conflict of interest for us).

…

On Jun 24, 2023 at 7:53 PM +0100, Nuño Sempere ***@***.***>, wrote: I'm trying to run the scripts/model/poll_model_2020.stan. After compiling it with cmdstan, I keep getting the error: $ ./poll_model_2020 method=sample num_samples=1000 num_warmup=1000 method = sample (Default) sample num_samples = 1000 (Default) num_warmup = 1000 (Default) save_warmup = 0 (Default) thin = 1 (Default) adapt engaged = 1 (Default) gamma = 0.050000000000000003 (Default) delta = 0.80000000000000004 (Default) kappa = 0.75 (Default) t0 = 10 (Default) init_buffer = 75 (Default) term_buffer = 50 (Default) window = 25 (Default) algorithm = hmc (Default) hmc engine = nuts (Default) nuts max_depth = 10 (Default) metric = diag_e (Default) metric_file = (Default) stepsize = 1 (Default) stepsize_jitter = 0 (Default) num_chains = 1 (Default) id = 1 (Default) data file = (Default) init = 2 (Default) random seed = 4125478090 (Default) output file = output.csv (Default) diagnostic_file = (Default) refresh = 100 (Default) sig_figs = -1 (Default) profile_file = profile.csv (Default) num_threads = 1 (Default) Exception: variable does not exist; processing stage=data initialization; variable name=N_national_polls; base type=int (in '../us-potus-model/scripts/model/poll_model_2020.stan', line 2, column 2 to column 23) My sense is that there is probably some data file that I'd have to feed into this, but, being a complete novice with stan, I'm not sure where to find it. If I use $ ./poll_model_2020 method=sample num_samples=1000 num_warmup=1000 data file=../../data/all_polls.csv I still get the same error. Any thoughts? Coming from https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2023/06/14/the-economist-is-hiring-a-political-data-scientist-to-do-election-modeling/, where Andrew mentioned that getting this model to run would be "trivial". — Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub, or unsubscribe. You are receiving this because you are subscribed to this thread.Message ID: ***@***.***>

[NunoSempere]

Oh, sad to see. Is there any chance that now, a few years after the election, you could make that part of the code publicly reproducible? I understand if this is too much trouble, though, or if you want to hide some stuff to keep some "modelling lead" in advance of the 2024 election.