Paper: https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1740-9713.01627 (Significance, 2022)
The entire analysis presented in the paper can be reproduced with the provided Jupyter notebook. Frozen data is provided in the frozen-data folder. Final figures can be found in the img folder.
Testing reported Covid-19 cases and deaths for underdispersion compared to Poisson, based on the WHO data. Each dot is one week, 100 weeks in total. Asterisks denote p<0.05. Only countries with at least 15 weeks with p<0.05 undispersion, or at least 4 weeks in a row, are shown. Summed weekly counts are separately tested for under- dispersion in chunks of 10 weeks (below); countries with at least 5 significant weeks are shown.
== REPORTED DEATHS ==
Albania .................*.......**....***......*........*..*.*..*..................*.***...................
Algeria ..........*****.**.....*...........................**...*.*.***.*...****............***.*.**....*...
Azerbaijan ................****......*.****..*.....**.......*.*.....***..**..............*....*..*.............
Belarus ......*.....*..******.******.****....***************************..****************.**********.***.*.
Cambodia ..............................................................................*.......********......
Egypt ................**...............******.**.****......**...**.***.*.............*..**.*.*..*.........
El Salvador .........*.......**.....**..*...*****...***..**..***..**..**.****...***.*.*..*****..*.*.......*.....
Kyrgyzstan .....................................**.......*...............*.*...*.***********..*******.*....*...
Lebanon .........................................*..................**..*********..**....**..*.**..*********
Mongolia ....................................................................**............****..............
Russia ..........................................................................*.****....*..*.****.....*.
Saudi Arabia .........**...*.*.....**.....***.***********.*.***.***********************.*..***********.**********
Serbia ........***..*.*...****.*..*...***......***.*.**.****.******.******..............**********.**.*.**.
Syria .........................*****.*******.*..*..****.*..*.*.....*.****.****.*.*..*...***....******.****
Turkey ............**...*.****.*..**.**.****..*..*.**.*...***......................................*.......
Uzbekistan ...................*..****.**..**.*........................*.........*************..********.**..***
Venezuela ...................*.**....*.****...****.**.********.****.****.**..***.****.......*..**..*..**..**..
== REPORTED CASES ==
Qatar ............................................**....*****....................................***......
Tajikistan ...............**.**********.***********..................................****......................
UAE .......................................................................****...*.......**............
== REPORTED DEATHS PER WEEK ==
Belarus . . . . * * * * . *
Nicaragua . . . * * * * * * *
| Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec | Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec | Jan
| 2020 | 2021 |