NOTE: THIS IS A PERSONAL EXPERIMENT AND NOT ACTUAL MEDICAL ADVICE! I AM NOT A PHARMACOLOGIST OR STATISTICIAN!
The amazing website Transfeminine Science offers an injectable estradiol simulator, but E2 transdermal patch simulators have been scarce. E2 patches have not been studied significantly in transfeminine people because of both a general lack of trans healthcare research and also because injections are the preferred route by most people on feminizing hormone replacement therapy. Additionally, E2 absorption varies significantly depending on where patches are applied, so estimates are harder to make.
The model for this simulator, then, should be understood to be extremely rough. The data sources used to approximate the serum concentration curve are from these two studies, both of which sampled exclusively post-menopausal cis women and required abdominal patch placement. All patches are assumed to be 0.1mg patches offered by Mylan (or similar).