The latest English Premier League based on FiveThirtyEight's game metrics.
First, an average score of a match is calculated using the following formula.
average-score = average(xG, non-shot xG, adjusted-score)
Next, Match Result is decided based on the following conditions:
- Team 1 wins if average-score(team-1) - average-score(team-2) > tolerance
- Team 2 wins if average-score(team-2) - average-score(team-1) > tolerance
- Otherwise Draw
tolerance = 0.2 (default)
A slider is made available on the webpage to change the above tolerance. A larger tolerance ensures more domination required for a win.