シミュレーション結果に関する質問 - 問い合わせ日2021-12-30
Closed this issue · 1 comments
nekobean commented
問い合わせ内容
いつもシミュレータにはお世話になっております。
シミュレータの結果について気になる点がありました。
考慮項目の手変わりをありにする場合となしにする場合で、
ありにした方が和了率や期待値が下がる場合がありました。
(12577m222468p445sの打5mなど)
本来であれば選択肢が増える分期待値は上がるものと
思われますので、ご調査いただけないでしょうか。
nekobean commented
アルゴリズム変更により、手変わり、向聴戻しありの場合のほうが和了率や期待値が高くなった
手変わり、向聴戻しなし
== Config ===
min turn: 1
max turn: 18
wall tiles: 121
extra: 0
shanten type: 7
shanten down: true
tegawari: true
reddora: true
uradora: true
=== Round ===
hand: [ルール]
赤ドラ有り: 有り
喰い断有り: 有り
[場]
東1局0本場
供託棒: 0本
ドラ表示牌:
=== Player ===
hand: 手牌: 12577m222468p445s
副露牌:
自風: 1z
=== Info ===
shanten: 2
time: 1 ms
searched: 245 hands
=== Necessary Tiles ===
5m type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
7m type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
4p type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
8p type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
4s type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
5s type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
=== Tenpai Probability ===
turn 5m 7m 4p 8p 4s 5s
1 73.10% 56.84% 65.14% 65.14% 67.72% 66.36%
2 70.05% 53.39% 61.96% 61.96% 64.42% 63.01%
3 66.70% 49.76% 58.54% 58.54% 60.84% 59.40%
4 63.02% 45.96% 54.86% 54.86% 56.99% 55.53%
5 59.01% 42.00% 50.93% 50.93% 52.87% 51.40%
6 54.66% 37.90% 46.75% 46.75% 48.48% 47.02%
7 49.97% 33.70% 42.33% 42.33% 43.83% 42.41%
8 44.93% 29.42% 37.69% 37.69% 38.96% 37.59%
9 39.59% 25.12% 32.87% 32.87% 33.90% 32.62%
10 33.99% 20.85% 27.92% 27.92% 28.71% 27.54%
11 28.20% 16.69% 22.90% 22.90% 23.48% 22.45%
12 22.32% 12.72% 17.92% 17.92% 18.30% 17.44%
13 16.53% 9.04% 13.11% 13.11% 13.33% 12.66%
14 11.04% 5.78% 8.64% 8.64% 8.75% 8.27%
15 6.16% 3.08% 4.76% 4.76% 4.79% 4.51%
16 2.29% 1.09% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.64%
17 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
18 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
=== Win Probability ===
turn 5m 7m 4p 8p 4s 5s
1 18.44% 11.51% 15.11% 15.11% 16.89% 14.51%
2 16.41% 10.01% 13.35% 13.35% 14.93% 12.74%
3 14.43% 8.60% 11.65% 11.65% 13.04% 11.04%
4 12.50% 7.27% 10.01% 10.01% 11.21% 9.43%
5 10.65% 6.03% 8.46% 8.46% 9.48% 7.91%
6 8.90% 4.91% 7.01% 7.01% 7.86% 6.50%
7 7.26% 3.89% 5.67% 5.67% 6.35% 5.21%
8 5.75% 2.99% 4.45% 4.45% 4.99% 4.05%
9 4.39% 2.21% 3.36% 3.36% 3.77% 3.03%
10 3.19% 1.55% 2.43% 2.43% 2.72% 2.16%
11 2.18% 1.03% 1.64% 1.64% 1.84% 1.45%
12 1.36% 0.62% 1.02% 1.02% 1.13% 0.88%
13 0.75% 0.33% 0.55% 0.55% 0.61% 0.47%
14 0.33% 0.14% 0.24% 0.24% 0.27% 0.20%
15 0.09% 0.04% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.05%
16 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
17 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
18 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
=== Expected Score ===
turn 5m 7m 4p 8p 4s 5s
1 678.18 402.22 504.11 596.04 586.95 559.27
2 603.22 349.78 444.40 526.83 518.78 491.35
3 530.01 300.12 386.86 459.90 452.76 426.14
4 459.09 253.57 331.88 395.70 389.36 364.10
5 391.06 210.40 279.87 334.73 329.13 305.70
6 326.54 170.91 231.27 277.51 272.60 251.41
7 266.19 135.34 186.49 224.57 220.30 201.70
8 210.71 103.91 145.95 176.41 172.78 156.98
9 160.75 76.76 110.04 133.52 130.53 117.65
10 116.96 53.98 79.08 96.36 93.98 84.01
11 79.89 35.57 53.32 65.27 63.49 56.26
12 49.96 21.42 32.90 40.46 39.24 34.45
13 27.38 11.28 17.78 21.97 21.24 18.47
14 12.02 4.74 7.69 9.56 9.20 7.92
15 3.30 1.25 2.08 2.60 2.49 2.12
16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00手変わり、向聴戻しあり
=== Config ===
min turn: 1
max turn: 18
wall tiles: 121
extra: 1
shanten type: 7
shanten down: true
tegawari: true
reddora: true
uradora: true
=== Round ===
hand: [ルール]
赤ドラ有り: 有り
喰い断有り: 有り
[場]
東1局0本場
供託棒: 0本
ドラ表示牌:
=== Player ===
hand: 手牌: 12577m222468p445s
副露牌:
自風: 1z
=== Info ===
shanten: 2
time: 213 ms
searched: 20233 hands
=== Necessary Tiles ===
1m type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
2m type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
5m type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
7m type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
2p type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
4p type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
6p type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
8p type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
4s type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
5s type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
=== Tenpai Probability ===
turn 1m 2m 5m 7m 2p 4p 6p 8p 4s 5s
1 78.08% 77.50% 76.37% 73.07% 58.50% 75.10% 71.73% 76.21% 76.95% 71.87%
2 74.91% 74.30% 73.26% 69.60% 54.49% 71.95% 68.28% 73.05% 73.74% 68.50%
3 71.35% 70.72% 69.83% 65.76% 50.23% 68.47% 64.45% 69.55% 70.17% 64.83%
4 67.38% 66.73% 66.06% 61.55% 45.75% 64.63% 60.24% 65.72% 66.23% 60.88%
5 62.97% 62.35% 61.96% 56.97% 41.07% 60.41% 55.64% 61.53% 61.89% 56.58%
6 58.12% 57.55% 57.52% 52.03% 36.26% 55.81% 50.65% 56.95% 57.14% 51.96%
7 52.86% 52.32% 52.69% 46.75% 31.38% 50.83% 45.29% 51.96% 52.00% 47.02%
8 47.10% 46.60% 47.47% 41.19% 26.53% 45.47% 39.60% 46.58% 46.48% 41.80%
9 40.85% 40.40% 41.87% 35.41% 21.80% 39.77% 33.65% 40.82% 40.61% 36.32%
10 34.17% 33.78% 35.94% 29.50% 17.16% 33.78% 27.56% 34.74% 34.44% 30.66%
11 27.18% 26.88% 29.77% 23.59% 12.75% 27.61% 21.43% 28.44% 28.10% 24.93%
12 20.13% 19.91% 23.50% 17.82% 8.72% 21.41% 15.46% 22.08% 21.76% 19.25%
13 13.39% 13.25% 17.31% 12.38% 5.25% 15.39% 9.94% 15.87% 15.61% 13.82%
14 7.38% 7.31% 11.46% 7.55% 2.55% 9.85% 5.28% 10.13% 9.96% 8.88%
15 2.65% 2.63% 6.30% 3.67% 0.78% 5.16% 1.83% 5.27% 5.20% 4.71%
16 0.00% 0.00% 2.29% 1.09% 0.00% 1.75% 0.00% 1.75% 1.75% 1.64%
17 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
18 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
=== Win Probability ===
turn 1m 2m 5m 7m 2p 4p 6p 8p 4s 5s
1 21.86% 21.35% 20.89% 17.11% 11.64% 19.51% 17.71% 20.41% 21.77% 17.70%
2 19.24% 18.78% 18.46% 14.98% 9.93% 17.20% 15.48% 18.03% 19.23% 15.50%
3 16.69% 16.28% 16.11% 12.94% 8.33% 14.97% 13.34% 15.71% 16.76% 13.40%
4 14.23% 13.88% 13.85% 10.99% 6.84% 12.83% 11.29% 13.48% 14.41% 11.40%
5 11.89% 11.59% 11.72% 9.16% 5.49% 10.79% 9.35% 11.36% 12.17% 9.53%
6 9.69% 9.46% 9.72% 7.46% 4.27% 8.89% 7.56% 9.37% 10.05% 7.79%
7 7.67% 7.49% 7.87% 5.91% 3.22% 7.15% 5.92% 7.54% 8.09% 6.20%
8 5.86% 5.72% 6.18% 4.53% 2.32% 5.57% 4.45% 5.88% 6.30% 4.79%
9 4.26% 4.16% 4.68% 3.32% 1.59% 4.17% 3.19% 4.40% 4.72% 3.56%
10 2.90% 2.83% 3.39% 2.30% 1.02% 2.96% 2.13% 3.13% 3.36% 2.51%
11 1.80% 1.76% 2.30% 1.48% 0.60% 1.97% 1.30% 2.07% 2.23% 1.65%
12 0.98% 0.96% 1.42% 0.86% 0.30% 1.19% 0.69% 1.24% 1.34% 0.99%
13 0.43% 0.42% 0.77% 0.43% 0.12% 0.62% 0.29% 0.65% 0.70% 0.52%
14 0.12% 0.11% 0.33% 0.16% 0.03% 0.26% 0.08% 0.26% 0.29% 0.21%
15 0.00% 0.00% 0.09% 0.04% 0.00% 0.07% 0.00% 0.07% 0.07% 0.05%
16 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
17 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
18 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
=== Expected Score ===
turn 1m 2m 5m 7m 2p 4p 6p 8p 4s 5s
1 1743.59 1738.88 1498.24 1074.23 684.00 1326.05 926.60 1491.72 1471.00 1286.55
2 1531.63 1525.84 1309.52 929.43 578.66 1154.41 798.75 1299.79 1287.01 1115.02
3 1326.77 1319.78 1128.43 791.94 481.62 989.99 678.42 1116.05 1109.29 951.66
4 1130.98 1122.10 956.45 662.72 393.60 834.06 565.88 941.95 939.29 797.70
5 944.99 934.69 794.40 542.89 314.27 687.90 461.93 778.46 778.77 654.51
6 770.33 759.40 643.83 433.44 243.96 552.98 367.41 627.22 629.58 523.59
7 609.01 598.33 506.36 335.39 183.13 430.87 283.12 490.00 493.44 406.15
8 463.20 453.74 383.69 249.76 131.61 323.06 209.79 368.56 372.03 303.37
9 335.01 327.76 277.45 177.38 89.46 230.85 147.65 264.38 267.24 216.54
10 226.49 221.48 189.18 118.43 56.51 155.23 97.02 178.71 180.78 146.18
11 139.43 136.32 119.82 72.74 32.26 96.62 58.06 112.02 113.14 91.62
12 74.86 73.23 68.86 39.86 15.89 54.62 30.27 63.75 63.89 52.21
13 32.12 31.44 34.77 18.62 6.13 26.52 12.56 31.48 31.19 25.54
14 8.58 8.41 13.80 6.57 1.43 9.84 3.23 11.93 11.64 9.63
15 0.00 0.00 3.30 1.25 0.00 2.08 0.00 2.60 2.49 2.12
16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00