quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast

Initial: Suggestions

Opened this issue · 4 comments

Claygr commented
  • Limit randomly displayed forecasts on homepage to collection of whitelisted forecasts
  • Change forecast update time until >12pm GMT such that you capture the daily updates from Good Judgment Inc
  • Display forecasts graphically with certain parameters (minimum, time: 24hr; 7d; 14d; 1mo; etc | also consider: log & delta probability)
  • In addition to current probability on forecast display, also show delta of Q probability given certain time parameters (24hr; 7d; 14d; 1mo; etc)
  • Editable dashboards (re-organize order of questions; add or remove questions from dashboard)
  • Sections in dashboards (topic: Russia-Ukraine; section 1 = sanctions Qs; section 2 = NATO Qs; etc.)
  • Display options for dashboards (toggle description text; number of columns; enable graphs for selected questions; etc)
  • Aggregate similar forecasts into a blended forecast given certain parameters (length of question; stars / subjective weights; etc) and feature said forecasts in dashboards
  • Organize successive forecasts into a single chart / display and feature in dashboards (e.g., 10K, 25K, 50K, 100K War Death Qs all together)
  • Select forecasts to compare, including plotting on same chart (e.g., probability of peace deal and forecasts on wheat prices)

Later: Updated front-end design

NunoSempere commented

Don't show description in mainpage?

24h movement, high/low, etc. Other relevant forecasts??

NunoSempere commented

Related forecasts using keywords?

NunoSempere commented
  • Limit randomly displayed forecasts on homepage to collection of whitelisted forecasts (1 hour given forecasts)
  • Change forecast update time until >12pm GMT such that you capture the daily updates from Good Judgment Inc (10 mins)
  • Display forecasts graphically with certain parameters (minimum, time: 24hr; 7d; 14d; 1mo; etc | also consider: log & delta probability) (3h)
  • In addition to current probability on forecast display, also show delta of Q probability given certain time parameters (24hr; 7d; 14d; 1mo; etc) (2h)
  • Editable dashboards (re-organize order of questions; add or remove questions from dashboard) (1 day)
  • Sections in dashboards (topic: Russia-Ukraine; section 1 = sanctions Qs; section 2 = NATO Qs; etc.) (30 mins)
  • Display options for dashboards (toggle description text; number of columns; enable graphs for selected questions; etc) (3h)
  • Aggregate similar forecasts into a blended forecast given certain parameters (length of question; stars / subjective weights; etc) and feature said forecasts in dashboards (half a day)
  • Organize successive forecasts into a single chart / display and feature in dashboards (e.g., 10K, 25K, 50K, 100K War Death Qs all together) (1 day)
  • Select forecasts to compare, including plotting on same chart (e.g., probability of peace deal and forecasts on wheat prices) (1 day)

Later: Updated front-end design

NunoSempere commented

Why Clay wants this: To have numerous successors of https://globalguessing.com/russia-ukraine-forecasts/ for different topics