taw/magic-sealed-data

STX boosters have a Lesson slot

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Hi,

This is the composition of Strixhaven draft boosters according to Wizards (source):

  • 1 Rare or mythic rare
  • 1 Mystical Archive card (uncommon, rare, or mythic rare)
  • 1 Lesson card (common, rare, or mythic rare)
  • 3 Uncommons
  • 9 Commons
  • 1 Common card replaced by a foil card of any rarity* in 1 out of 3 boosters

*This includes Mystical Archive cards

I have noticed you started implementing STX boosters, but I think you have not implemented a lesson slot which, apparently, exists in the booster alongside the Mythical Archive slot.

Hope this information is useful.

taw commented

I suspect more is going on, due to MDFCs and numbers being unusual with or without separating lessons.

Basically until https://www.lethe.xyz/mtg/collation/ writes their description, everything we have is preliminary. Every set is doing some gimmick or another these days.

By the way do you have any source for that? No idea what's the ratio of different lesson rarities.

the only source I had on this is the one I reported above. But I agree, there's most likely even more going on here.

taw commented

By the way I added pack data explorer to mtg.wtf: https://mtg.wtf/pack/stx

It should make it a lot clearer what's going on that by reading json

Oh wow that is a great visualization! Thanks :) I for one will definitely use it a lot.

Another oddity from the same source, uncommon lessons do not appear in the lesson slot, but in the standard uncommon slot instead. Confirmation here: https://twitter.com/mturian/status/1377389539073826817

but why?! 🤣

taw commented

Well, that solves the mystery of why there were only 75 uncommons not 80.

Common to Rare/Mythic Lesson rate is still a mystery.

I would assume the rate you defined of 9/10 times common lesson and 1/10 times a rare/mythic with rare appearing twice as likely seems reasonable to me... but of course, we can't really know until packs are opened.

taw commented

110 is one of typical sheet sizes, R:M is almost always 2:1, and this rate made the result match that sheet size at C:R rates within usual range. It's basically educated guess.

At least back in the days working backwards from sheet sizes was a pretty good way to figure out the rates; nowadays it's less reliable as their setups got more complex.

A bit on the side to the lesson discussion, but they announced the correct probabilities of the Mystical Archives rarities (source):

this slot can be either uncommon (67%), rare (24.6%), or mythic rare (6.6%).

I am not sure if they were already known.

taw commented

Yeah, I found those Mystical Archives rates, already using them.

taw commented

So this is all done now?

I would say so, thanks