/Absolute-Mehrheit

Forecasting possible coalition results of the 2021 German federal election

Primary LanguagePythonMIT LicenseMIT

Absolute Mehrheit

Election Simulation Example

Objectives:

  • learn drift rates of polls
  • Create Monte-Carlo samples of party results
  • Deliver coalition forecast for German 2021 election
  • Deliver 5% hurdle forecast

Data to consider

Polls:

  • Allensbach
  • Forsa
  • FGW
  • GMS
  • Infratest dimap
  • INSA
  • Kantar
  • Yougov