This text summarizes the result from calculating the return of investment for installing solar panels in Sweden. Following this text, is a more detailed description how these number are derived. More tables for other power production and inverterd sizes can be found in the appendix.
To get a better picture of your future system, run the Selling Power jupyter notebook.
Because the position of the solar panels highly effect the power produced, the tables below give two examples of different systems that align in different cardinal direction. Remember that all values in this document are only examples and will differ in your specific setup. However, how much they differ is hard to predict. See the section of power production modelling for more details about the two systems.
The following assumptions/simpilifications has been made:
Electric zone SE3
Solar cells have a linear power production model between December and June
All power is sold immediately, regardless of price. No power is stored and sold later at a better price.
All power is sold, no power is used by the household.
100% availability
System 1 Earnings (SEK) (10kWp, 8kW Inverter)
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
SUM
2016
158.0
141.4
225.1
283.4
399.3
728.0
495.4
451.2
407.5
297.3
197.6
53.6
3837.7
2017
150.0
233.9
331.4
389.8
519.8
556.2
533.9
500.7
516.9
249.5
151.0
51.1
4184.0
2018
161.0
295.0
530.6
561.3
642.4
929.2
953.1
841.5
751.3
377.6
245.6
86.2
6374.8
2019
280.3
345.0
461.9
590.3
682.7
588.9
644.1
578.5
529.4
336.8
212.4
64.0
5314.2
2020
124.6
163.0
182.5
149.4
262.1
651.9
188.8
616.8
541.2
218.7
142.1
63.3
3304.2
2021
262.8
424.7
447.9
489.8
804.2
888.5
1099.4
1052.6
1464.4
656.7
489.4
355.5
8435.8
2022
603.2
661.5
1519.9
1344.9
1998.9
3007.9
1969.8
4282.3
3677.7
792.0
698.3
492.6
21049.0
2023
542.3
665.5
956.7
935.3
685.4
1057.6
617.5
555.5
431.6
340.9
429.6
146.7
7364.8
The table above display example system 1 earnings in SEK when we apply its solar panel power production model to historical spot prices of electricity. Note that year 2022 stand out due to high electric prices, probably because the start of the Ukraine war.
System 2 Earnings (SEK) (10kWp, 8kW Inverter)
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
SUM
2016
148.1
130.9
204.6
257.0
360.6
651.8
440.7
402.5
367.2
272.3
185.8
58.6
3480.3
2017
141.0
214.8
302.4
354.1
468.0
497.9
476.7
451.7
465.9
229.8
141.9
55.7
3799.9
2018
151.2
272.8
490.1
508.7
579.1
824.5
848.2
753.9
677.0
346.0
230.8
94.4
5776.5
2019
264.9
316.1
418.9
533.4
610.8
522.9
573.5
520.2
478.3
308.4
199.7
69.8
4816.9
2020
117.0
152.2
168.9
149.5
247.6
583.4
166.5
549.0
495.7
200.1
129.2
69.4
3028.5
2021
245.5
401.7
413.1
462.5
735.3
787.9
978.6
943.3
1309.2
600.3
455.7
386.0
7719.1
2022
558.4
606.2
1455.8
1287.1
1863.5
2751.5
1739.5
3783.5
3332.2
727.9
648.3
535.4
19289.2
2023
502.4
612.9
883.9
880.0
673.2
971.2
563.8
496.8
400.4
322.9
400.1
159.3
6866.8
The table above display example system 2 earnings in SEK when we apply its solar panel power production model to historical spot prices of electricity. Note that year 2022 stand out due to high electric prices, probably because the start of the Ukraine war.
System 1 Power Sold and Power Produced Overflow (kWh) (10kWp, 8kW Inverter)
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
SUM
2016
465.3
724.7
1084.0
1348.4
1702.7
1947.1
1702.7
1393.4
1348.4
774.7
450.3
156.0
13097.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2017
465.3
699.7
1084.0
1348.4
1702.7
1947.1
1702.7
1393.4
1348.4
774.7
450.3
156.0
13072.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2018
465.3
699.7
1084.0
1348.4
1702.7
1947.1
1702.7
1393.4
1348.4
774.7
450.3
156.0
13072.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2019
465.3
699.7
1084.0
1348.4
1702.7
1947.1
1702.7
1393.4
1348.4
774.7
450.3
156.0
13072.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2020
465.3
724.7
1084.0
1348.4
1702.7
1947.1
1702.7
1393.4
1348.4
774.7
450.3
156.0
13097.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2021
465.3
699.7
1084.0
1348.4
1702.7
1947.1
1702.7
1393.4
1348.4
774.7
450.3
156.0
13072.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2022
465.3
699.7
1084.0
1348.4
1702.7
1947.1
1702.7
1393.4
1348.4
774.7
450.3
156.0
13072.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2023
465.3
699.7
1084.0
1348.4
1702.7
1947.1
1702.7
1393.4
1348.4
774.7
450.3
156.0
13072.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
The table above displays the power sold from example system 1 when we apply its solar panel power production model. Below each value is the overflow power produced by the solar panels which could not be sold due to limitations of the inverter. Note that year 2016 and 2020 stands out because of leap years.
System 2 Power Sold and Power Produced Overflow (kWh) (10kWp, 8kW Inverter)
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
SUM
2016
439.6
663.0
977.8
1206.7
1516.0
1727.5
1516.0
1246.9
1206.7
708.7
425.4
170.5
11804.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2017
439.6
640.1
977.8
1206.7
1516.0
1727.5
1516.0
1246.9
1206.7
708.7
425.4
170.5
11781.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2018
439.6
640.1
977.8
1206.7
1516.0
1727.5
1516.0
1246.9
1206.7
708.7
425.4
170.5
11781.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2019
439.6
640.1
977.8
1206.7
1516.0
1727.5
1516.0
1246.9
1206.7
708.7
425.4
170.5
11781.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2020
439.6
663.0
977.8
1206.7
1516.0
1727.5
1516.0
1246.9
1206.7
708.7
425.4
170.5
11804.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2021
439.6
640.1
977.8
1206.7
1516.0
1727.5
1516.0
1246.9
1206.7
708.7
425.4
170.5
11781.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2022
439.6
640.1
977.8
1206.7
1516.0
1727.5
1516.0
1246.9
1206.7
708.7
425.4
170.5
11781.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2023
439.6
640.1
977.8
1206.7
1516.0
1727.5
1516.0
1246.9
1206.7
708.7
425.4
170.5
11781.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
The table above displays the power sold from example system 2 when we apply its solar panel power production model. Below each value is the overflow power produced by the solar panels which could not be sold due to limitations of the inverter. Note that year 2016 and 2020 stands out because of leap years.
Modelling the Power Production
The two systems are modelled after real world data with linear interpolation. I received the data from a colleague and consists of the power production per hour for one day in June and one day in December of both his systems. From these two days, I used linear interpolation to estimate the power produced at a certain hour for any day of the year. As a simplification, I assume that every day in a month produce on average the same amount of power.
System 1 Specifics
15.7kWp with a 12kW inverter
36 x 290kW solar panels pointing south-east, 18 x 290kW solar panels point south-west
roof slanted at 40 degrees
Yellow color in the raw production data
System 2 Specifics
12kWp with a 10kW inverter
13 x 415kW solar panels pointing east, 16 x 415kW solar panels point south
roof slanted at 40 degrees
Brown color in the raw production data
Raw Power Production Data
Interpolated Models
System Model 1
System Model 2
Historical Spot Price of Electricity
NordPool provides the spot prices for electricty in the nordic, however their historical data is locked behind a paywall. Luckily the danish government provides this data from NordPool for free. This means that we need to convert the spot price per MWh from EUR to SEK.