/ImprovingMatchInfographics

A small project following my article on the distribution on Expected goals and how to interpret xG values in single matches.

Primary LanguagePython

Improving Match xG Infographics

The repository consists of the code used in my blog post about the poisson distribution of Expected Goals in single football matches.

http://roensholt-stats.com/2021-04-25-Hvorfor-expected-goals-ikke-fort%C3%A6ller-resultatet-af-en-kamp/

This project I will make my attempt to improve the common used Expected Goals (xG) race chart from a single game. This will be done by adding more context like win, loss and draw probabilities, the 3 most probable scorelines and the probability for goals for each team.

  • utils contains utility functions and scripts for calculations, cleaning and metatdata
  • output contains all the visualizations
  • team_logos contains all Premier League team badges
  • xG_Infographic.ipynb code for the complete xG Infographic
  • goal_probabilities_plot.py code for goal probability viz
  • win_probability_plot.py code for win probability viz
  • xG_racechart_plot.py code for xG racechart viz

xG Infographic

xG infographic breakdown

xG racechart

Goal probabilities for each team

Bar chart of 0-9 goals for each team, where the actual goal(s) scored is filled.

Win probability

The probability of each team winning or a draw result based on the shots they have taken.