DiseaseOutbreak

Modeling disease outbreaks

We use a generative discrete Markov chain to model the progress of an infectious disease in a population. It assumes that everyone within a certain radius of an infected person is susceptible, and there is a certain probability of being infected. The input parameters are the locations of all individuals, radius of infection, probability of being infected on a given day, how long an infected person is infectious. You can seed the simulator with a the number and positions of currently infected individuals. The data directory contains household information for Memphis.

TODO:

  • Layer information about severity
  • Add testing regime
  • Add ability to estimate parameters from observed data