Multiple waves - a bit of explanation

[gergelytakacs]

Hello there,

Can you please document the multiple waves example a bit better?

• If I understand correctly, you separate the two waves to two problems, and each of them is fit separately?

[ECheynet]

Hi,

Yes, this is how it is done. The initial conditions for the second fitting are taken from the final time step of the first fitting. The population of unsusceptible is also reinitialized so the number of susceptibles suddenly increases, facilitating the dynamic of the new wave. The time parameter in the fatality and recovery rates are also reinitialized. That means that the parameters in the first and second waves are estimated independently from each other. I guess this can be interpreted as the fact that the dynamic of the first wave is uncoupled from the second wave.

I hope my answer is clear enough

[gergelytakacs]

It is absolutely clear. Now it keeps me wondering how to do this a priori? One can see it after it happened, but it would be interesting to set some conditions as it develops (but this is more of a philosophical question and does not concern your code).