Parameter Estimation & Case Prediction of a SIRD Model using the Metropolis Hasting MCMC algorithm.
The jupyter notebook has everything needed to estimate parameters and predict future cases. The priors, case data, and ground truths can be found in the following csv files
- case_data.csv : Infection data from day 0-50 for a small town in India
- prior_data_worldwide.csv : known parameter values for different cities throughout the world
- test_predictions.csv : observed data for I, R, D for days 51-110 in the same town
- statpy_sp22_vb_kd.pdf: Brief Slides to Problem, Methodology, and Conclusions made from data analysis