/Benford-s-Law

Primary LanguageJupyter Notebook

Benford-s-Law

Preface

So, I was watching Netflix documentary series called Connected and in one of episode, narrator talked about technique, which a lot of world's tax agencies use to check if company is commiting tax fraud. This technique is called Benford's Law.

What is Benford's Law?

Many people guess that the odds are no different from it being any other number, so they say 10%. While there are 10 digits, 0 can't be the leftmost digit of a population. So, there are actually only 9 choices.

OK, so the odds are 1 in 9, or a probability of about 11.1%”, you might say. Surprisingly, the odds of the first digit of a randomly-chosen population, or a number representing just about any other naturally occurring quantity, being a 1 is more than 30%!

This very counter-intuitive observation is known as Benford's Law.

Benford's Law

Project

In this project I'm trying to test different numbers in different fields with Benford' Law proportions.

Fields:

  • Politics
  • Sports
  • Economics

Politics

Russian elections

russian elections

American elections 2016

!American elections

Disclaimer

After creating this project I found out that Benford's Law is not a good measure of election's validity. For more information check out this video.

Sports

NBA three point attempts of different players.

3PTS attempts

Economics

S&P500 Volume

volume

Prices of agricultural commodities

agriculture ![