Agricultural Market Integration Preserves Future Global Water Resources
Neal T. Graham1*, Gokul Iyer1, Thomas B. Wild1, Flannery Dolan2, Jonathan Lamontagne2, Katherine Calvin1
1Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740
2Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155
*corresponding author: neal.graham@pnnl.gov
Abstract
Traded agricultural goods redistribute water, virtually, around the world to satisfy unmet demands while limiting excess water extraction in importing regions. However, gaps remain in our understanding of how alternative international trade regimes may alter agricultural water demands, locally and virtually. Here, we explore global agricultural water savings and virtual water trade impacts of such trade regimes under reference and low-carbon scenarios using an integrated and water-constrained human-Earth system model. We find that varying agricultural market integration significantly alters regional water withdrawals, while also substantially impacting global nonrenewable groundwater withdrawals. These results highlight the susceptibility of water resources, across regions, to varying degrees of market integration. Understanding how trade integration may evolve in the future can assist in the integrated management of water resources to allow for enhanced food security and potential amelioration of water stress.
Journal Reference
To be updated
Repository Overview
This repository is designed to provide the necessary inputs to reproduce the data and figures found in Graham et al. (2023). All results found in the queried_outputs/ directory are queried outputs from the 26 Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) runs used for the study. A minted version of GCAM version 5.4 used for this experiment and complete output databases can be provided upon request to the corresponding author. Main text figures and select supplementary figures can be found in figures/ with a R script to reproduce such figures found scripts/.