/Kaggle-house-price-prediction

My submission to kaggle sale price prediction problem

Primary LanguageJupyter Notebook

Ames Housing Data and Kaggle Challenge


In this project I examined a comprehensive housing dataset from the city of Ames in Iowa, USA (source). Homeowners looking to increase the value of their homes often spend too much on remodeling and don't get the return on investment when selling the house. On the other hand, people looking to buy houses want to get the best house possible given a budget. The goal of this project is to address some of these concerns, specifically:

  • what features add the most value to a home, and which hurt home values the most?
  • given a set of features, what is the expected sale price of a house?
  • given a budget, what kind of house would one be able to afford?

To answer these questions, I fitted different linear regression models to the housing data in order to determine the features that are most influential on house price, and those that have the least effect. The performance of the models will be evaluated using the R2 metric, which is a measure of how much the model is able to explain the variance in the dataset.

Summary of Findings & Recommendations


For house buyers with specific budgets, this model would allow one to figure out what features they would be able to afford given an amount of money. For those looking to invest, houses in the Northridge Heights, Stone Brook, and Northridge neighbourhoods all had higher prices compared to other neighbourhoods. Conversely, people looking to sell their house would be able to use the model to get an estimate of how much they would be able to sell their house for. If one is looking to sell, they should do it sooner rather than later, as the age of the house is one of the biggest contributing factor to the decrease in value. Having a garage in bad condition also negatively affect value, as does having a second floor to the house. And unsurprisingly, if the house is severely damaged, its value drops. As such, those looking to increase the value of their home could consider increasing the square footage of their house, renovating the kitchen and garage, and adding a fireplace.

The model may however have limited applicabilities, as it was developed using data on houses sold between 2006 - 2010 in Ames, USA. This dataset is limited in scope both in terms of the time frame captured, as well as location. The small time frame of four years is not enough to capture any annual changes in sale price that could arise as a result of external factors, such as the current economy. Housing prices at present (in 2019) may also have changed as a result of inflation. The model is also specific to houses in Ames and may not be as accurate when applied to data from another city or country, where house prices may be affected by different things than for example, garage quality.

In reality, house price may be difficult to predict as it is also affected by buyers' psychology, the economic climate, and other factors not included in the present dataset. There will never be a perfect model; the aim of this model is therefore not to give a perfect prediction, but act as a guideline to inform decisions.

Data Dictionary


   SalePrice - the property's sale price in dollars. This is the target variable.
   MSSubClass: The building class
       20 1-STORY 1946 & NEWER ALL STYLES
       30 1-STORY 1945 & OLDER
       40 1-STORY W/FINISHED ATTIC ALL AGES
       45 1-1/2 STORY - UNFINISHED ALL AGES
       50 1-1/2 STORY FINISHED ALL AGES
       60 2-STORY 1946 & NEWER
       70 2-STORY 1945 & OLDER
       75 2-1/2 STORY ALL AGES
       80 SPLIT OR MULTI-LEVEL
       85 SPLIT FOYER
       90 DUPLEX - ALL STYLES AND AGES
       120 1-STORY PUD (Planned Unit Development) - 1946 & NEWER
       150 1-1/2 STORY PUD - ALL AGES
       160 2-STORY PUD - 1946 & NEWER
       180 PUD - MULTILEVEL - INCL SPLIT LEV/FOYER
       190 2 FAMILY CONVERSION - ALL STYLES AND AGES
   MSZoning: Identifies the general zoning classification of the sale.
       A Agriculture
       C Commercial
       FV Floating Village Residential
       I Industrial
       RH Residential High Density
       RL Residential Low Density
       RP Residential Low Density Park
       RM Residential Medium Density
   LotFrontage: Linear feet of street connected to property
   LotArea: Lot size in square feet
   Street: Type of road access to property
       Grvl Gravel
       Pave Paved
   Alley: Type of alley access to property
       Grvl Gravel
       Pave Paved
       NA No alley access
   LotShape: General shape of property
       Reg Regular
       IR1 Slightly irregular
       IR2 Moderately Irregular
       IR3 Irregular
   LandContour: Flatness of the property
       Lvl Near Flat/Level
       Bnk Banked - Quick and significant rise from street grade to building
       HLS Hillside - Significant slope from side to side
       Low Depression
   Utilities: Type of utilities available
       AllPub All public Utilities (E,G,W,& S)
       NoSewr Electricity, Gas, and Water (Septic Tank)
       NoSeWa Electricity and Gas Only
       ELO Electricity only
   LotConfig: Lot configuration
       Inside Inside lot
       Corner Corner lot
       CulDSac Cul-de-sac
       FR2 Frontage on 2 sides of property
       FR3 Frontage on 3 sides of property
   LandSlope: Slope of property
       Gtl Gentle slope
       Mod Moderate Slope
       Sev Severe Slope
   Neighborhood: Physical locations within Ames city limits
       Blmngtn Bloomington Heights
       Blueste Bluestem
       BrDale Briardale
       BrkSide Brookside
       ClearCr Clear Creek
       CollgCr College Creek
       Crawfor Crawford
       Edwards Edwards
       Gilbert Gilbert
       GrnHill Green Hill
       IDOTRR Iowa DOT and Rail Road
       MeadowV Meadow Village
       Mitchel Mitchell
       Names North Ames
       NoRidge Northridge
       NPkVill Northpark Villa
       NridgHt Northridge Heights
       NWAmes Northwest Ames
       OldTown Old Town
       SWISU South & West of Iowa State University
       Sawyer Sawyer
       SawyerW Sawyer West
       Somerst Somerset
       StoneBr Stone Brook
       Timber Timberland
       Veenker Veenker
   Condition1: Proximity to main road or railroad
       Artery Adjacent to arterial street
       Feedr Adjacent to feeder street
       Norm Normal
       RRNn Within 200' of North-South Railroad
       RRAn Adjacent to North-South Railroad
       PosN Near positive off-site feature--park, greenbelt, etc.
       PosA Adjacent to postive off-site feature
       RRNe Within 200' of East-West Railroad
       RRAe Adjacent to East-West Railroad
   Condition2: Proximity to main road or railroad (if a second is present)
       Artery Adjacent to arterial street
       Feedr Adjacent to feeder street
       Norm Normal
       RRNn Within 200' of North-South Railroad
       RRAn Adjacent to North-South Railroad
       PosN Near positive off-site feature--park, greenbelt, etc.
       PosA Adjacent to postive off-site feature
       RRNe Within 200' of East-West Railroad
       RRAe Adjacent to East-West Railroad
   BldgType: Type of dwelling
       1Fam Single-family Detached
       2FmCon Two-family Conversion; originally built as one-family dwelling
       Duplx Duplex
       TwnhsE Townhouse End Unit
       TwnhsI Townhouse Inside Unit
   HouseStyle: Style of dwelling
       1Story One story
       1.5Fin One and one-half story: 2nd level finished
       1.5Unf One and one-half story: 2nd level unfinished
       2Story Two story
       2.5Fin Two and one-half story: 2nd level finished
       2.5Unf Two and one-half story: 2nd level unfinished
       SFoyer Split Foyer
       SLvl Split Level
   OverallQual: Overall material and finish quality
       10 Very Excellent
       9 Excellent
       8 Very Good
       7 Good
       6 Above Average
       5 Average
       4 Below Average
       3 Fair
       2 Poor
       1 Very Poor
   OverallCond: Overall condition rating
       10 Very Excellent
       9 Excellent
       8 Very Good
       7 Good
       6 Above Average
       5 Average
       4 Below Average
       3 Fair
       2 Poor
       1 Very Poor
   YearBuilt: Original construction date
   YearRemodAdd: Remodel date (same as construction date if no remodeling or additions)
   RoofStyle: Type of roof
       Flat Flat
       Gable Gable
       Gambrel Gabrel (Barn)
       Hip Hip
       Mansard Mansard
       Shed Shed
   RoofMatl: Roof material
       ClyTile Clay or Tile
       CompShg Standard (Composite) Shingle
       Membran Membrane
       Metal Metal
       Roll Roll
       Tar&Grv Gravel & Tar
       WdShake Wood Shakes
       WdShngl Wood Shingles
   Exterior1st: Exterior covering on house
       AsbShng Asbestos Shingles
       AsphShn Asphalt Shingles
       BrkComm Brick Common
       BrkFace Brick Face
       CBlock Cinder Block
       CemntBd Cement Board
       HdBoard Hard Board
       ImStucc Imitation Stucco
       MetalSd Metal Siding
       Other Other
       Plywood Plywood
       PreCast PreCast
       Stone Stone
       Stucco Stucco
       VinylSd Vinyl Siding
       Wd Sdng Wood Siding
       WdShing Wood Shingles
   Exterior2nd: Exterior covering on house (if more than one material)
       AsbShng Asbestos Shingles
       AsphShn Asphalt Shingles
       BrkComm Brick Common
       BrkFace Brick Face
       CBlock Cinder Block
       CemntBd Cement Board
       HdBoard Hard Board
       ImStucc Imitation Stucco
       MetalSd Metal Siding
       Other Other
       Plywood Plywood
       PreCast PreCast
       Stone Stone
       Stucco Stucco
       VinylSd Vinyl Siding
       Wd Sdng Wood Siding
       WdShing Wood Shingles
   MasVnrType: Masonry veneer type
       BrkCmn Brick Common
       BrkFace Brick Face
       CBlock Cinder Block
       None None
       Stone Stone
   MasVnrArea: Masonry veneer area in square feet
   ExterQual: Exterior material quality
       Ex Excellent
       Gd Good
       TA Average/Typical
       Fa Fair
       Po Poor
   ExterCond: Present condition of the material on the exterior
       Ex Excellent
       Gd Good
       TA Average/Typical
       Fa Fair
       Po Poor
   Foundation: Type of foundation
       BrkTil Brick & Tile
       CBlock Cinder Block
       PConc Poured Contrete
       Slab Slab
       Stone Stone
       Wood Wood
   BsmtQual: Height of the basement
       Ex Excellent (100+ inches)
       Gd Good (90-99 inches)
       TA Typical (80-89 inches)
       Fa Fair (70-79 inches)
       Po Poor (<70 inches)
       NA No Basement
   BsmtCond: General condition of the basement
       Ex Excellent
       Gd Good
       TA Typical - slight dampness allowed
       Fa Fair - dampness or some cracking or settling
       Po Poor - Severe cracking, settling, or wetness
       NA No Basement
   BsmtExposure: Walkout or garden level basement walls
       Gd Good Exposure
       Av Average Exposure (split levels or foyers typically score average or above)
       Mn Mimimum Exposure
       No No Exposure
       NA No Basement
   BsmtFinType1: Quality of basement finished area
       GLQ Good Living Quarters
       ALQ Average Living Quarters
       BLQ Below Average Living Quarters
       Rec Average Rec Room
       LwQ Low Quality
       Unf Unfinshed
       NA No Basement
   BsmtFinSF1: Type 1 finished square feet
   BsmtFinType2: Quality of second finished area (if present)
       GLQ Good Living Quarters
       ALQ Average Living Quarters
       BLQ Below Average Living Quarters
       Rec Average Rec Room
       LwQ Low Quality
       Unf Unfinshed
       NA No Basement
   BsmtFinSF2: Type 2 finished square feet
   BsmtUnfSF: Unfinished square feet of basement area
   TotalBsmtSF: Total square feet of basement area
   Heating: Type of heating
       Floor Floor Furnace
       GasA Gas forced warm air furnace
       GasW Gas hot water or steam heat
       Grav Gravity furnace
       OthW Hot water or steam heat other than gas
       Wall Wall furnace
   HeatingQC: Heating quality and condition
       Ex Excellent
       Gd Good
       TA Average/Typical
       Fa Fair
       Po Poor
   CentralAir: Central air conditioning
       N No
       Y Yes
   Electrical: Electrical system
       SBrkr Standard Circuit Breakers & Romex
       FuseA Fuse Box over 60 AMP and all Romex wiring (Average)
       FuseF 60 AMP Fuse Box and mostly Romex wiring (Fair)
       FuseP 60 AMP Fuse Box and mostly knob & tube wiring (poor)
       Mix Mixed
   1stFlrSF: First Floor square feet
   2ndFlrSF: Second floor square feet
   LowQualFinSF: Low quality finished square feet (all floors)
   GrLivArea: Above grade (ground) living area square feet
   BsmtFullBath: Basement full bathrooms
   BsmtHalfBath: Basement half bathrooms
   FullBath: Full bathrooms above grade
   HalfBath: Half baths above grade
   Bedroom: Number of bedrooms above basement level
   Kitchen: Number of kitchens
   KitchenQual: Kitchen quality
       Ex Excellent
       Gd Good
       TA Typical/Average
       Fa Fair
       Po Poor
   TotRmsAbvGrd: Total rooms above grade (does not include bathrooms)
   Functional: Home functionality rating
       Typ Typical Functionality
       Min1 Minor Deductions 1
       Min2 Minor Deductions 2
       Mod Moderate Deductions
       Maj1 Major Deductions 1
       Maj2 Major Deductions 2
       Sev Severely Damaged
       Sal Salvage only
   Fireplaces: Number of fireplaces
   FireplaceQu: Fireplace quality
       Ex Excellent - Exceptional Masonry Fireplace
       Gd Good - Masonry Fireplace in main level
       TA Average - Prefabricated Fireplace in main living area or Masonry Fireplace in basement
       Fa Fair - Prefabricated Fireplace in basement
       Po Poor - Ben Franklin Stove
       NA No Fireplace
   GarageType: Garage location
       2Types More than one type of garage
       Attchd Attached to home
       Basment Basement Garage
       BuiltIn Built-In (Garage part of house - typically has room above garage)
       CarPort Car Port
       Detchd Detached from home
       NA No Garage
   GarageYrBlt: Year garage was built
   GarageFinish: Interior finish of the garage
       Fin Finished
       RFn Rough Finished
       Unf Unfinished
       NA No Garage
   GarageCars: Size of garage in car capacity
   GarageArea: Size of garage in square feet
   GarageQual: Garage quality
       Ex Excellent
       Gd Good
       TA Typical/Average
       Fa Fair
       Po Poor
       NA No Garage
   GarageCond: Garage condition
       Ex Excellent
       Gd Good
       TA Typical/Average
       Fa Fair
       Po Poor
       NA No Garage
   PavedDrive: Paved driveway
       Y Paved
       P Partial Pavement
       N Dirt/Gravel
   WoodDeckSF: Wood deck area in square feet
   OpenPorchSF: Open porch area in square feet
   EnclosedPorch: Enclosed porch area in square feet
   3SsnPorch: Three season porch area in square feet
   ScreenPorch: Screen porch area in square feet
   PoolArea: Pool area in square feet
   PoolQC: Pool quality
       Ex Excellent
       Gd Good
       TA Average/Typical
       Fa Fair
       NA No Pool
   Fence: Fence quality
       GdPrv Good Privacy
       MnPrv Minimum Privacy
       GdWo Good Wood
       MnWw Minimum Wood/Wire
       NA No Fence
   MiscFeature: Miscellaneous feature not covered in other categories
       Elev Elevator
       Gar2 2nd Garage (if not described in garage section)
       Othr Other
       Shed Shed (over 100 SF)
       TenC Tennis Court
       NA None
   MiscVal: $Value of miscellaneous feature
   MoSold: Month Sold
   YrSold: Year Sold
   SaleType: Type of sale
       WD Warranty Deed - Conventional
       CWD Warranty Deed - Cash
       VWD Warranty Deed - VA Loan
       New Home just constructed and sold
       COD Court Officer Deed/Estate
       Con Contract 15% Down payment regular terms
       ConLw Contract Low Down payment and low interest
       ConLI Contract Low Interest
       ConLD Contract Low Down
       Oth Other