/disutility-of-uncertainty

How uncertainty around marginal tax rates affects social welfare

Primary LanguageJupyter Notebook

Disutility of uncertainty

How uncertainty around marginal tax rates affects social welfare.

What’s here

  • Core models implementing Cobb–Douglas utility and optimal labor choice: src/taxuncertainty/models/utility.py
  • Uncertainty analysis (bias loss, EU-maximizing labor under uncertainty, two-worker planner, optimal taxes with uncertainty): src/taxuncertainty/analysis/uncertainty.py
  • PolicyEngine-US integration scaffold: src/taxuncertainty/data/policyengine_integration.py
  • Tests: tests/
  • Reproducible runner for figures and tables (blocks 1–4): scripts/run_analysis.py

Quick start

  1. Python 3.13 environment:
    • python3.13 -m venv .venv && source .venv/bin/activate
    • pip install -e ".[dev,research]"
  2. Generate figures (blocks 1–4):
    • make figures (outputs to results/latest)
  3. Build the MyST site (optional):
    • make myst (outputs to paper/_build/site)

Replication details are in REPRODUCING.md.

Roadmap

  1. Stylized theory and figures (done)
  2. Robustness and sensitivity (grids, parameters)
  3. Microdata integration with PolicyEngine-US (non-linear schedules)
  4. Calibration or sufficient-statistics extensions
  5. Paper polishing and submission