See the webapp here: https://nbkelly.github.io/anr-cut-check/.
Actually checking cut odds is limited to cases when there are 12 or less unreported pairs left. The equation has 3^p time complexity, and javascript is very slow, so it's better not to push it.
I'll add more features to this eventually (inspect player, scenarios).
The situations where this is useful are during asyncs and when waiting for rounds to end, and for keeping easy tabs on what games you can watch.
Find out information on how safe it is to ID, or your odds of making it into a cut, during the final round of a tournament. Alternatively, if the tournament is concluded, calculate the SoS/ESoS/placings.
Byes are accounted for, but duplicate player names, or any jokesters that want to name themselves (Bye), are not. As far as I can tell, all results line up with the algorithms used by cobr.ai.
For simple usage, you can just run the standings.sh script, like so:
standings.sh [cobr.ai ID] [rounds] [cut-size]
Alternatively, follow these directions:
Compile the java class
javac com/nbkelly/outcomes/Outcomes.java
Generate pairings (scrape from cobra.ai) with Pairings.py and a tournament ID, ie:
python3 Pairings.py 2337 > pairings.txt
Run the script with the file you generated, the number of rounds, and the cut size (in this case, 4, 4).
java com.nbkelly.outcomes.Outcomes -p pairings.txt -r 4 --cut-size 4
Imagine a tournament with a structure like this, part way through the fourth (final) round:
| left | score | right |
|---|---|---|
| nbkelly | 6 - 0 | Matuszczak |
| luke | - | jtfq |
| dessert_cactus | - | bowlsley |
| armin | 6 - 0 | milla |
| deer | 0 - 6 | sebastiank |
| shorty | 0 - 6 | enkoder |
| guiot | 3 - 3 | echo |
| yonato | - | knorpule |
| Sanjay | 3 - 3 | Baa Ram Wu |
| rural_octopus047 | 0 - 6 | shruthless |
| thepatrician | - | Larrea |
| OF15-15 | - | AN2 |
| functor | - | seebasss7 |
| techgin | 0 - 6 | gilesdavis |
The standings table for the tournament after three rounds looks like this:
| place | name | score | SoS | ESoS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matuszczak | 18 | 2.6667 | 3.5556 |
| 2 | nbkelly | 15 | 2.6667 | 4.1667 |
| 3 | lukevanryn | 15 | 2.6667 | 3.5556 |
| 4 | jtfq99999 | 15 | 2.3333 | 3.8333 |
| 5 | dessert_cactus | 12 | 3.6667 | 3.3889 |
| 6 | milla | 12 | 3.3333 | 3.5556 |
| 7 | DeeR | 12 | 3.3333 | 3.2778 |
| 8 | ArminFirecracker | 12 | 3.3333 | 3.1111 |
| 9 | sebastiank | 12 | 3.0000 | 3.5000 |
| 10 | bowlsley | 12 | 3.0000 | 3.4444 |
| 11 | yonato | 9 | 4.5000 | 2.6667 |
| 12 | enkoder | 9 | 4.0000 | 3.0000 |
| 13 | guiot | 9 | 4.0000 | 2.5556 |
| 14 | Shorty | 9 | 3.6667 | 3.1667 |
| 15 | echo | 9 | 3.3333 | 2.8889 |
| 16 | Baa Ram Wu | 9 | 3.0000 | 3.3333 |
| 17 | knorpule3000 | 9 | 2.6667 | 3.4444 |
| 18 | techgin | 6 | 4.5000 | 3.1667 |
| 19 | functor | 6 | 3.6667 | 2.5556 |
| 20 | OF15-15 | 6 | 3.6667 | 2.4444 |
| 21 | rural_octopus047 | 6 | 3.5000 | 3.5000 |
| 22 | crowphie | 6 | 3.3333 | 2.4444 |
| 23 | gilesdavis | 6 | 3.3333 | 2.4444 |
| 24 | Sanjay | 6 | 3.0000 | 2.3333 |
| 25 | thepatrician | 6 | 2.6667 | 2.8889 |
| 26 | AN2 | 6 | 2.3333 | 3.4444 |
| 27 | seebasss7 | 6 | 2.3333 | 3.1111 |
| 28 | shruthless | 6 | 2.3333 | 2.6667 |
| 29 | Larrea | 6 | 2.0000 | 3.3333 |
It's possible to come up with good odds for who should id, who should try to 241, who what the odds are of each player making it into the cut (4 spots for this tournament).
ODDS FOR TOP 4 CUT (all outcomes):
nbkelly 100.000%
ArminFirecracker 73.251%
sebastiank 69.136%
Matuszczak 58.848%
jtfq99999 56.379%
lukevanryn 39.369%
dessert_cactus 1.920%
bowlsley 1.097%
PLAYERS UP FOR CONTENTION
SWEEP SPLIT FOLD
bowlsley 3.292% 0.000% 0.000%
dessert_cactus 5.761% 0.000% 0.000%
jtfq99999 100.000% 69.136% 0.000%
lukevanryn 100.000% 18.107% 0.000%
- Help:
-h- shows you all the arguments - Inspect Player:
--inspect-player --show-me -ip [name]- shows you all the free scenarios in which a player can make it to the cut (limited by--scenario-max) - Show Opponents:
--pairings --show-opponents -sp [name]- shows you all the opponents of a player, and their scores - Scenario Max:
--max --scenario-max [name]- sets the maximum scenarios shown on inspect-player (default: 5)
I need to filter out cut games for concluded tournaments.
If we can find players who 100% should ID, then we can make more inferences about how the other players should behave.
Later, this will be hooked up to a web frontend or ported to typescript.