- Setup Pyenv+Poetry on a local venv and
poetry install - Fill up
.envwith the necessary environment variables - Run telegram_bot.py so you can start syncing the messages in the group "Over99PercentWins". You need to be join the group beforehand.
- Run future_bot.py so it can start trading. We recommend trying on the futures testnet first for some time to see if everything is going according to plan.
- To reset, kill the scripts above and delete sqlite db (a local file) AND clear your futures positions on binance. Important to do both, else will fuck up.
We know the following:
- stop loss at -8% and they cancel around 1.5% of calls
- targets and their hit rates are at 0.5% (77%), 1.3% (74%), 2.1% (68%), 3.5% (57%), 4.3% (52%), 5.2% (47%)
If we set target at target 3, but it never reaches target 3, we'll sell it after a set period of time (say 24H) at market rate (which is > 92% of price paid) But we don't know what that market rate is. This makes it difficult to calculate an EV without backtesting.
Simplistic model 1 -> either reaches stoploss or target 3 (where we set to take profit): (1-0.68456)0.92 + 0.6845631.021 = 0.989 Simplistic model 2 -> either reaches target 3, or is sold off somewhere between stoploss and target 3 (assume uniform): ((0.92+1.02)/2)(1-0.68) + 1.0210.68 = 1.004
Decision: Wing it.