Project management ROPE™ estimate

A ROPE™ estimate is a project management planning tactic that uses four perspectives: Realistic, Optimistic, Pessimistic, Equilibristic. The four perspectives combine to make a better stronger estimate.

ROPE™ estimate for projects, plans, tasks

Introduction

What is a ROPE estimate?

A ROPE estimate is a project management planning tactic that uses four perspectives:

R = Realistic estimate. This is based on work being typical, reasonable, plausible, and usual.
O = Optimistic estimate. This is based on work turning out to be notably easy, or fast, or lucky.
P = Pessimistic estimate. This is based on work turning out to be notably hard, or slow, or unlucky.
E = Equilibristic estimate. This is based on success as 50% likely such as for critical chains and simulations.

What is a ROPE estimate example?

Here's an example ROPE estimate for how long a task will take:

R = Realistic = 10 hours
O = Optimistic = 5 hours
P = Pessimistic = 20 hours
E = Equilibristic = 8 hours

ROPE steps

Realistic estimate

If a task is simple, clear, and well understood, then we do a realistic estimate.

We aim for an estimate that is useful as general guidance for teamwork. We communicate to all stakeholders in writing that our realistic estimate is not a guarantee, promise, contract, or the like, and also we request feedback about this.

Optimistic estimate

If a task may potentially have ways to accelarate it, then we do an optimistic estimate.

We look for ways to move faster, such as if we could buy vs. build, or rent vs. buy, or hire an expert, or leverage a partner's capabilties, and so forth.

Pessimistic estimate

If a task is complex, unclear, or less understood, then we do a pessimistic estimate.

We aim for estimates that we can do as commitments to management and customers, such as ballpark 95% certainty.

We also write a RAID log, i.e. we write down any risks, assumptions, issues, dependencies.

Equilibristic estimate

If a task is very complex, or new territory, or needs significant new knowledge to be understood, then we do an equilibristic estimate.

We use this estimate for project managers who want to do critical chain project management processes, or monte carlo simulations, or related kinds of resource allocation leveling, portfolio rollup combinations, and the like.

ROPE stakeholders

ROPE estimates are the most successful way we're doing project management planning.

In our experience, ROPE is the best way to work across multiple organizations and multiple stakeholder perspectives.

R = Realistic = Works well with most stakeholders, and is what most are already doing.
O = Optimistic = Works well with business leaders, who want to inspire, sell, market, or present.
P = Pessimistic = Works well with risk managers, who want to insure, budget, cap, or commit.
E = Equilibristic = Works well with project managers who target the best critical chain capabilities.

Who estimates?

When our team gets a new task, then the teammates who are likely to be doing the work get together to estimate.

We make a point of including all relevant roles. For example, if we are estimating a product feature, then we include estimates by the relevant manager, designer, developer, tester, marketer, etc.

ROPE related to other tactics

ROPE project management tooling

ROPE estimates work well with many kinds of project management tooling.

We use the Realistic estimate in typical project management tools, such as Jira, Trello, Asana, Basecamp, Project, etc.
We use the Optimistic estimate and Pessimistic estimate in project management tools that provide range estimates, or that enable us to add custom fields. We use these estimates to highlight ranges, such as during management meetings, to advise leadership of any opportunities for faster success, and of any risks for slower success.
We use the Equilibristic estimate in critical chain scheduling tools, such as Aurora, Exepron, LYNX, etc. Critical chain is the best project management scheduling solution that we've found. However, in our experience, many mainstream project management tools do not yet support critical chain scheduling, and many project managers are not as familiar with the technique.

ROPE and Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)

ROPE estimates work well with Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and similar kinds of planning tactics.

If a task is large, such involving multiple teammates, stakeholders, user stories, use cases, or organizations, then we do a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) that splits the task into smaller tasks. For example, we can use WBS to create seperate tasks for specific research steps, or development spikes, or stakeholder interviews, or customer acceptance tests, etc.
If a ROPE estmate has a large spread, such as a large difference between the optimistic estimate and pessimistic estimate, then consider doing a WBS. Can the task be split into pieces? If so, split the task into subtasks, then do a ROPE estimate for each subtask.

ROPE units

In our experience, project esimation units work well when the team creates shared understanding among stakeholders.

When we work with multiple organizations, we always estimate using shared understanding.

What units does ROPE use?

ROPE can use any units.

ROPE estimates work well with units of time, such as work-hours or calendar-days.
ROPE estimates work well with units of cost, such as U.S. dollars or equity percentages.
ROPE estimates work well with combinations of units, such as units of time and cost, such as hours and dollars.

What units should we try first?

To get the ball rolling with new teams, we suggest starting with these units:

Units of time as work-hours. This means the person who does the work will spend one hour.
Units of cost as local-currency. This means U.S. dollars for typical U.S. projects.

In our experience, these units are the easiest and fastest for creating shared understanding.

Can ROPE work with my team's special units?

We work with some teams that use other kinds of teamwork units, such as:

sizes such as story points, small/medium/large t-shirts, planning poker points, etc.
times such as sprint cycles, iteration loops, calendar schedules, etc.
resources such as staffing, squad assignments, equipment availability, etc.

Questions

Why use ROPE instead of any other way?

ROPE starts with the realistic estimate, which is quick and easy.

ROPE then does the optimistic estimate, which helps stakeholders who are eager.

ROPE then does the pessimistic estimate, which helps stakeholders who are cautious.

ROPE then does the equilibristic estimate, which helps stakeholders who use critical chain, monte carlo simulation, and similar kinds of systems.

We believe the ROPE mnemonic and the wording works well in practice because the wording focuses on intents and feelings, rather than on exact precision or fixed guarantees.

Does ROPE do minimum estimate and maximum estimate?

ROPE intentionally does not do a minimum estimate nor maximum estimate.

In our experience, ROPE is a better agile estimation process than minimum-maximum estimation, and ROPE is also better way of working.

We do have some clients who ask for estimates in terms of minimum and maximum, such as for creating formal budget requests, or assigning project plan ceilings, or for not-to-exceed work rates, or for risk management purposes.

For these clients, we can add these later if necessary, and discuss adding these within the context of a contract, or guarantee, or commitment.

Why the name ROPE?

A real rope combines multiple threads, or fibers, or strands, in order to create a stronger whole that can do more.

Similarly, a ROPE estimate combines multiple perspectives, in order to create a stronger whole for project management and project stakeholders.

Why is ROPE a trademark?

ROPE is a trademark (&tm;) because we want to ensure that everyone has access to it, the same way, for free. We have seen similar projects skip using a trademark, then get stolen by spammer third-parties.

Repositories:

Wikipedia:

SixArm/project-management-rope-estimate