/covid19-forecast-belgium

Covid-19 mortality forecasts for Belgium

Primary LanguageJupyter Notebook

Goal

Compare the predictions of existing mortality forecasting models for Belgium, following what the CDC does for the US - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html. For the US, the forecasts from around 15 models are collected every week by the Reich Lab

For the moment, this repository provides:

  • A notebook - Data-Collection.ipynb, that collects predictions from the YYG and IHME forecasting models from the 11/04 to the 23/05
  • A Shiny interface to visualise the predictions, and assess/compare the model forecasting errors

TODO:

  • Extend the data collection to more models
  • Collect predictions for new hospitalisations

Data format

Truth

Truth data are located in the data-truth folder. The following file is expected:

  • truth-incident-deaths : Daily number of deaths. The format is
    • date : Date in YYYY-MM-DD format
    • location: ID for the region, or 'All' if data for the whole country
    • value: Number of deaths for the date in the region/country

Predictions

The format follows the one suggested by ReichLab - https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/blob/master/data-processed/README.md#Data-formatting

The file must be a comma-separated value (csv) file with the following columns (in any order):

  • forecast_date
  • target
  • target_end_date
  • location
  • type
  • quantile
  • value

Collected data

The data collection notebook currently collects data for the YYG and IHME models.

YYG

Reich forecasts only provided for US data. Belgium data is in https://github.com/youyanggu/covid19_projections/blob/master/projections/2020-05-21/global/Belgium_ALL.csv

IHME

Archived predictions are available from http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads.

Acknowledgements