/DeterministicAndStochasticModelsForZikaVirusTransmission

Deterministic And Stochastic Models For Zika Virus Transmission

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Deterministic And Stochastic Models For Zika Virus Transmission

Motivation:
Transmission of Zika virus is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases. It is transmitted to humans by many Aedes-type mosquitoes, primarily the Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. An infected pregnant woman can become a source of transmission of virus to her baby during pregnancy and can result in serious birth defects, including microcephaly. The outbreak emerged in 2014 in Brazil and the emergence still persists and continues to be the major cause of mortality in many subtropical and tropical countries.
Importance of Topic:
The outbreak in 2016 showed that Zikas easily missed symptoms may give no indication of its potentially serious complications. There is, currently, no treatment for Zika infection through travel to the mosquito-borne regions and sexual transmission continue to be the primary arena where the infection can be controlled. Women of childbearing age, who contract the virus, are at risk of giving birth to children with severe health problems including microcephaly, eye problems (including vision loss), epilepsy, nervous system defects, and hearing defects. Of 1450 children born to infected mothers, 1 in 7 had a birth defect associated with the virus or a neurological abnormality possibly linked to the virus.
Conclusion
Three different approaches have been used namely, the deterministic model and 2 stochastic models, CTMC(Continuous Time Markov Chain) and DTMC(Discrete Time Markov Chain). The results we obtained from the three approaches are evidently interchangeable. We have reproduced the graphs from the deterministic model from the base article referenced below[1].
Reference
Deterministic and stochastic CTMC models from Zika disease transmission