Using Bayesian methods of Machine Learning to predict the outcome of the World Cup 2018
The historical results for the games played by nations over several tournaments and friendly matches was obtained from kaggle.com/martj42/international-football-results-from-1872-to-2017. For this project, we only considered the games played after 1990.
| Country | Win Prob |
|---|---|
| Panama | 3.40782532144e-21 |
| Tunisia | 3.33870889796e-17 |
| Costa Rica | 1.06054606769e-15 |
| Iceland | 1.15047168436e-15 |
| Peru | 9.49614627603e-15 |
| Iran | 4.08477523177e-13 |
| Australia | 5.47302353197e-13 |
| Japan | 8.92773312939e-12 |
| Saudi Arabia | 1.1233077319e-11 |
| Korea Republic | 1.77807982253e-10 |
| Egypt | 4.84056461218e-10 |
| Nigeria | 6.971036813e-09 |
| Morocco | 2.81934931466e-08 |
| Russia | 4.39508383554e-08 |
| Mexico | 4.64058794879e-08 |
| Sweden | 5.89491079778e-08 |
| Serbia | 1.16489197847e-07 |
| Colombia | 3.24268552996e-07 |
| Senegal | 2.89937494555e-05 |
| Denmark | 0.000485088548152 |
| Switzerland | 0.000500315725254 |
| Poland | 0.000868767325681 |
| Croatia | 0.000929753461322 |
| Uruguay | 0.00958912600344 |
| England | 3.69990985263 |
| Portugal | 3.77546986039 |
| Belgium | 7.85135736102 |
| Germany | 10.0409017291 |
| Brazil | 11.5166605718 |
| Argentina | 13.0688666473 |
| Spain | 14.0985860463 |
| France | 35.9358452608 |
Results for the group stage below -- Fill in the scores yourself!