In this case study, as a Data Scientist I will be working with the US federal government's Health and Environment department. I've been tasked with determining whether sales for the oldest and most powerful producers of cigarettes in the country are increasing or declining. Cowboy Cigarettes (TM, est. 1890) is the US's longest-running cigarette manufacturer. Like many cigarette companies, however, they haven't always been that public about their sales and marketing data. The available post-war historical data runs for only 11 years after they resumed production in 1949; stopping in 1960 before resuming again in 1970.
My job is to use just the 1949-1960 data to predict whether the manufacturer's cigarette sales actually increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the early 60s. I need to make a probable reconstruction of the sales record of the manufacturer - predicting the future, from the perspective of the past - to contribute my part of a full report on US public health in relation to major cigarette companies. The report will then be combined with other studies executed by my colleagues to provide important government advice.