loss of water habitat: evaporation runoff everything else
- HBR human biting rate, EIR biting rate that carries risk of infection
- HBR is fit first, then EIR
- 5 500 000 000 what is the Temporary Rainfall Parameter; scales the EIR up or down. And does something else
- change Parasite Params from 0.02 ,0.1, and the smear sensitivity to 0.01 Simulation|Parameter | Setting | ----------|----------|---------| Base0 | | |
- | New Diagnostic Detection | 0.02
- | Parasite Smear Sensitivity | 0.02
- | x_Temporary_Larval_Habitat | 1
Note: time steps between repetitions ... what are the units ? And what is the Delta t?
- simulating the productivity of the breeding sites
- Reviews of Vecnet simulations
- Bugs:
- Future fixes:
- sweep
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Define the system
- Define the system elements and the relationships (interactions)
- Identify the drivers and inputs
- Which elements are knowable and well measured
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Abstract and Simplify
- What do we want to estimate or predict
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Design an operational model of the system
- what are all the dependent and independent variables
- We start with 3 locations
Emergence is a global property of a complex system exhibited as a function of self-organization that occurs at the local level. Emergent properties of the system can often be categorized as bad (unpredictable or uncontrollable) or good (adaptable, flexible, or robust). Self-organization is often described as a property that ‘spontaneously’ may occur, but I believe that self-organization (is another emergent property of a complex system) at the local level occurs as a function of the environment and doesn’t simply occur as a function of time. The complex interactions between all agents at the microscopic (or local) scale or level react and evolve to the environment leading to a self-organization that is in synchrony with the system as whole.
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Feedback: Thursday
- Eckhoff paper 1st 6 pages, until about the adult population; prepare to explain it. (2011)
- Summarize Complex Systems / Emergence / Self-organization
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The Model: EMOD
Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems
Per year the flow of parasites from mosq to people
- human parasites
- 40 or so diff. vectors pass on disease (agricultural water management practices)
- vector model is specific
- 2 species contribute to
- Common measures (EIR) # of times per year that a person ifece
- Sporozoite Rate (2-4pct. are byting have sporozoite in their salivary glands)
- Temperature
- Rain fall
- Geo-location
- The mosq Has to feed on people
- Human blood meal choise is an important phenom
- Mosq has to live long enough to do it's 1st blood meanl
- The model operates in time steps (1 day).
- Fem. mosq lay eggs in aquatic habitat
- Hatch and develop
- Adults emerge, mote, seek blood, digest blod and make more eggs
- lay eggs (repeat)
- Probability (length of the event), but while taking a meal, the propb. of death increases.
- Other factors, rain, humid. , and temp (daily)
- Assumes loss of habitat is mainly due to evaporation
- The events occur faster with high temp
Factors responding to
- constant
- temporary rain fall
- water vegetation
- human population
- brackis_swamp ?
The
The lower the EIR, the lower the prevalence
emergence self organization see figure