Decentralized Policy Development and Evaluation Initial proposal towards a Shared Vision for the IJssel River 2100
The future of the IJssel River is of great concern by a large diversity of local and national actors. All the stakeholders involved want their voices to be heard, indicating the need for a decision-making process that prioritizes transparency and accountability. The stakeholders desire a fairer distribution of information and power as opposed to a centralized top-down approach. This way of thinking also fosters greater autonomy by allowing for tailored solutions that address specific local and national contexts. Moreover, it promotes innovation by embracing diverse perspectives. We believe that this is a step towards a solution that every stakeholder can confidently say is more effective and inclusive.
The proposed process is one where any actor can develop policies by any means they want and then all actors can visualize the possible outcomes of any policy using this tool. Using the tool, the authorities will be able to compare policies to guide a discussion based on science towards a shared vision for the IJssel River.
The proposed process of collaborative evaluation of policies implies that everyone can submit a policy for everyone to assess. In order to be able to visualize and analyze the policies developed by every actor, there is just one model-wize element we need to agree upon:
The complexity of the model rises exponentially with every time step that is added. This limits the ability to interpret and communicate the results as well as raising the uncertainty. The time-wise discussion and modeling of implementation stages would be pushed towards a later discussion stage. Using one planning step.
The tool has two data sources. One google sheet file that describes the policies. The information in this sheet can be visualized when you hover over the policies. One results csv file (see example here) that includes the outcomes and experiments of the model with the following specifications: 1 planning step, 80 years simulation ( as if it was 2020 to 2100) A problem formulation with: Aggregated time Damages and deaths disaggregated over Dike Rings All costs disaggregated 100 scenarios over all the uncertainty space The code that creates this source file can be found in this GitHub repository.
The process to submit a policy to let every actor explore its potential outcomes requires the following steps:
- Create a policy! However, you want to (using exploration, directed search or any technical or empirical process). The only requirement is that you use one planning step.
- Submit the policy in any of the two following ways: Export your results in a csv file including all the levers and upload it to the policies folder. After you submit the file, make sure to describe your policy in this excel file. That information can be visualized on the tool as well as your results. Check this example made by DR1&2. In the excel file add the code of your policy on Column F and describe your policy.
- Let us know that you uploaded something and also if you want to replace an old policy from the tool. We will update the tool with the new policies daily.
This decision-making process is based on an open-science approach. Transparency and replicability is of utmost priority. All the code used to generate the results that are shown on the tool can be explored in this GitHub repository.
For the tool to be useful for this decision-making process, it needs to integrate the needs of all the involved stakeholders. Any feedback is welcome and will be considered to improve on the tool that is currently on an early stage of development. Please use this form to submit feedback. A specific meeting for this can be organized.
Pull requests are welcome. For major changes, please open an issue first to discuss what you would like to change.
Please make sure to update tests as appropriate.