An Analysis of the Spread of Coronavirus (COVID- 19) in Southeast Brazil
using Prediction Model
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Observing the worldwide tendency to ignore some diseases that can become a pandemic, I have decided to give my contribution for understanding the COVID-19 pandemic in Southeast Brazil. This pandemic is demanding more knowledge of its behavior for the prediction and estimation of cases from tables of data collected from the global health agencies. These routines are still very primary, but we can already observe some behavior that we can predict or estimate with models of evolution of the infection (I) of healthy individuals (S) that can kill (D) these or let these (R, E) live.
SIR model is a simple mathematical model for epidemics. Epidemics happen when a disease spread very fast reaching a large number of people in a short period of time. It defines "S" for for the number of susceptible; "I" or the number of infectious, and "R" for the number of recovered or deceased/immune individuals. This model is also missing some elements, such as the creation of new susceptible people by being born, and the removal of susceptible, infected, and recovered people who die.
This video is in Brazilian Portuguese and presents some clarifications about the coronavirus.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/gs-HlvC5iJc" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>This program has a database until March 24, 2020 for the number of confirmed cases for several countries. With the programs you can carry out an assessment of the lethality of COVID-19, and time/number evolution of infections.
The list of things that you need to use and how to install them.
- pip
pip install pandas numpy scipy wgetpip install pandas numpy scipy wget
- Get a free API Key at https://github.com/cmpaulo/corona
- Clone the repo
git clone https://github.com/cmpaulo/corona.gitThis chart shows the number of infected people for Brazil.
This table predicts the number of infected people for Brazil.
| Date | Prediction | Final number | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2020-05-19 | 255847 | 254220 |
| 1 | 2020-05-20 | 270500 | - |
| 2 | 2020-05-21 | 285876 | - |
| 3 | 2020-05-22 | 302011 | - |
| 4 | 2020-05-23 | 318943 | - |
| 5 | 2020-05-24 | 336711 | - |
This chart shows the fatality rate and infection rate by States in Brazil.
This chart shows five States of Brazil with the bigger number of infections
This chart compares the cases of infections in South America countries
This chart compares the cases of infections in bordering countries of Brazil
- The SIR model.
- Observatório COVID-19 BR.
- Covid-19 Repository from the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
- Jonh Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.
- Wesley Cota (UFV) website for monitoring confirmed cases in Brazil.
- Python tool (SciPy).
This is a volunteer-driven project made by people from different areas and backgrounds. If you would like to know better about us, here are some links: