/ecdc-weekly-growth-forecasts

COVID-19 cases forecasts for the ECDC Forecast Hub

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COVID-19 cases forecasts for the ECDC Forecast Hub

A Bayesian autoregressive model using weekly incidence data designed to run as a Github action. Both cases and the growth rate are assumed to be AR(1) processes with the growth rate being differenced and scaled by a decay parameter. The model is implemented using the forecast.vocs R package.