/Luck-talent-or-vision

An easy python reproduction and modification of the 2022 Ig Nobel Prize for Economics "Which Is More Important: Talent or Luck?"

Primary LanguageJupyter NotebookMIT LicenseMIT

Talent, Luck or Vision?

An easy python reproduction and modification of the 2022 Ig Nobel Prize for Economics
"Which Is More Important: Talent or Luck?"

Rules

Original rules

  1. There are N_people people in the town with different talent. Each person has a starting property 10
  2. There are N_luck luck events and N_unluck unlucky events randomly occur in the town at every iteration
  3. When a person meets a lucky event, the property is doubled based on talent
  4. When a person meets an unlucky event, the property becomes half

Extra rules:

  1. Lucky event cannot occur if unlucky event occurs
  2. Lucky event occurs if it is within an individual's vision

Experiments:

N_people = 1000
N_luck = 250
N_unluck = 250

Distribution of Talent and vision :

Note: Talent distribution and Vision distribution are independent

Scenario 1: Different talent + Same vision (similar to the original experiment)

The final property is not so relevent to talent.

Scenario 2: Same talent + Different vision

The final property is very relevent to vision.

Scenario 3: Different talent + Different vision

The final property is not so relevent to talent*vision

Credits

The idea of adding vision factor comes from my understanding of an YouTube video made by 老高與小茉