bquast/Failed-State-Gravity

An application of the gravity model to the interactions of failed states.

Failed State Gravity Model

Bastiaan Quast and Daniel Norfolk

Abstract

An application of the gravity model to the interactions of failed states.

An example - Afganistan and Pakistan

As an example, let us estimate this for Afganistan Pakistan using the failed state index for 2013 and the distance between Karachi and Kabul (in 1,000 km).

Afg = 106.7
Pak = 102.9
distAP = 1.09176

The FSI should be normalised using z-scores.

mean = 70.5
stDev = 23.5
AfgZ <- (Afg - mean)/stDev
PakZ <- (Pak - mean)/stDev
AfgZ

## [1] 1.54

PakZ

## [1] 1.379

Now we estimate the index:

IndAP <- (Afg * Pak)/distAP
IndAP

## [1] 10057

A comparison, Finland and Sweden

Input the data

Fin = 18
Swe = 19.7
distFS = 0.3959

The FSI should be normalised using z-scores.

FinZ <- (Fin - mean)/stDev
SweZ <- (Swe - mean)/stDev
FinZ

## [1] -2.234

SweZ

## [1] -2.162

Estimate the index

IndFS <- (Fin * Swe)/distFS
IndFS

## [1] 895.7