chaikalef/Turnover-analysis-and-prediction

Turnover analysis and prediction

Turnover-analysis-and-prediction

Tasks:

1. to make analytics according to the order history,
2. predict the turnover for a certain period of time,
3. estimate forecast error.

Stages of problem solving:

1. deletion of 2013, as it relates to the time of the start of work;
2. filtering data from incorrect or atypical;
3. construction of a pivot table (turnover, the number of orders, average receipts by months with the division into primary and repeat orders);
4. construction of seasonality indices (primary plus secondary orders) for turnover;
5. trade forecast for the second half of 2017 by months and comparison with the fact;
6. calculation of forecast error.

CSV file hear.

Brief verbal navigation on PDF file:

1. pivot table is presented on pages 12-13;
2. charts of monthly turnover, the number of orders and the average check are presented on page 16;
3. the stages of the forecast are presented on page 17;
4. a graph comparing the values of seasonality indices, calculated by method A and B, is presented on page 25;
5. a graph comparing forecast values and actual turnover for the second half of 2017 is presented on page 28;
6. a graph comparing the error values for the forecast, the seasonality indices for which calculated by method A and B, are presented on page 30.