/Non-Shot-xG

Using a StatsBomb event based expected goals model with Metrica's tracking data to attribute non-shot-xG to every possession of each team.

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Non-Shot-xG

Using a StatsBomb event based expected goals model with Metrica's tracking data to attribute non-shot-xG to every possession of each team.

Non-Shot xG

Why do they matter?

Goals, shots and expected goals are only counted if shots are actually taken.

Problem

The problem is that there are some chances where a goal is likely but a player doesn’t shoot for some reason, they choose to pass, or hesitate etc.

How do we measure or quantify these Non-Shot chances?

When a shot is taken, that is quantified and tracked in traditional metrics.

When there is no shot in a possession, that is lost. Non-shot expected goals takes the highest expected goal value assuming that the attacking palyer could have taken a shot.

This is NOT saying that the attacking player should always shoot rather than pass to get a better shot, but rather a way to quantify and track post-match.

Credit

Karun Singh's Expected Threat concept: Expected Threat

Friends of Tracking and Laurie Shaw's Metrica Tracking Tutorials: Friends of Tracking