Breakdown by vote type
Opened this issue · 8 comments
I am doing my own similar analysis on this, and I've noticed that if you break results down by vote type, by far the most non-conforming dataset is the Joe Biden ELECTION DAY results, rather than absentee or mail-in results. Please add a breakdown by vote type as well as by total. I have uploaded my datasets and code here: https://github.com/snex/election_results_benford
Any diagrams? Are you referring to first-digit or second-digit Benford?
All of my analysis has been text-based. I looked at both first digit and second digit.
Interesting
Please see my comments on issue #31 on this issue
I looked into it. At first glance, election day results in Allegheny do not seem to deviate from what one would expect to see:
Absentee votes are optically slightly more off in the second digit (someone looked into it here: #27 - I get a lower number of zeros than the other guy), whereas the last digit seems OK:
You will not be able to immediately see problems in the 2nd digit by visualizations, because 2nd digit Benford is much closer to uniform. You will need to do a conformity test. I get a chi-squared value for Biden Election Day votes of 72.354. That's massive. And no - it's not due to abysmal turnout. He received 1322 Election Day votes, compared to Trump's 1237. The absentees and totals come in at 18.143 and 16.555, respectively.
Could you post some charts? I don't know how to handle the files on your site.
.rb files are Ruby script files. If you have Ruby installed, all you do is run them and they'll spit out a data structure showing each candidate, vote type, and digit counts for them all, along with the chi-squared test stats. You can get Ruby at https://www.ruby-lang.org/en/
Making charts in Ruby isn't as nice as Python or R, but once you have the data you can shove it anywhere.