danirockyo/covid-data-model

Data backend providing computed data for the graphs displayed at https://covidactnow.org

COVID-19 Data Model

Objective: Provide a library/API that ingests COVID-19 data to provide simulated outcomes based on local isolation/quarantine policy levers as represented in published models.

This work supports https://covidactnow.org/.

Check It Out via Jupyter:

Resources

We track our work via Trello. Our engineering board is public.

Please file any issues via GitHub.

We are always looking for more collaborators. See our contact page for general information or reach out directly about helping via this form.

Models

• R-Based Model
  • Source Code
• Penn-Chime
• Imperial College Model
• Astor Sq ICU Beds Model
• Epidemic Calculator built by Open AI member
• Hopkins IDD Model

Data Sources

See covid-data-public for data sources being used or considered.

Some code in the covid-data-model repo depends on there being a copy of the covid-data-public repo at ../covid-data-public.

Setup

Detailed setup instructions can be found here

API Snapshots

We automatically build & publish an API snapshot (e.g. https://data.covidactnow.org/snapshot/123/) twice a day via a github action. To manually kick off a new snapshot, get a personal access token, and run:

export GITHUB_TOKEN=<YOUR PERSONAL GITHUB TOKEN>
./tools/push-api.sh

Once a snapshot has been vetted, you can "label" it with a friendly name, e.g. pointing https://data.covidactnow.org/v0/ at https://data.covidactnow.org/snapshot/123/ with:

export GITHUB_TOKEN=<YOUR PERSONAL GITHUB TOKEN>
./tools/label-api.sh v0 123

Development

Sentry

In order to have sentry run locally and report errors to the dev sentry instance, add the following to your .env

export SENTRY_DSN=https://<GET_SENTRY_DSN_FOR_DEV_INSTANCE>.ingest.sentry.io/<DEV_INSTANCE>

The gitub action pulls the sentry_dsn for the prod instance from a secrets stored within github.

Downloading Model Run Data

You can download recent model data output from the github action:

export GITHUB_TOKEN=<YOUR PERSONAL GITHUB TOKEN>
./run.py utils download-model-artifact --run-number <optional run number>

By default it downloads the last run, but you can choose a specific run with --run-number

PySEIR Setup

Installation

Recommend virtualenv or miniconda python 3.7 from here https://docs.conda.io/en/latest/miniconda.html

If using conda, you can use the following:

• conda create python=3.7 -n covid-data-model
• conda activate covid-data-model
• pip install -r requirements.txt -r requirements_test.txt

Running Models

PySEIR provides a command line interface in the activated environment. You can access the model with pyseir --help and pyseir <subcommand> --help providing more information.

Example: pyseir build-all --states="New York" will run state and county models for New York. States can also be specified by their state code: --states="New York" and --states=NY are equivalent.

Check the output/ folder for results.

Model Output

There are a variety of output artifacts to paths described in pyseir/utils.py. The main artifact is the ensemble_result which contains the output information for each suppression policy -> model compartment as well as capacity information.