Creates charts of alternative scenarios for development of covid given the new variant B117.
See https://www.endcoronavirus.org/ for more information on #covidzero.
Current states supported are CA, AZ, TX, GA, NC, LA, MI, IN, PA, MA, FL. Other states have insufficient B117 data from Helix as of 2/23/2021.
python new_variant_estimate.py
Initial R0 is given by data from Epiforecasts
Old variants vs. new variant R assumes that new variant has 50% higher R than old variants
Variant R value of 0.9 gives an overall downward trajectory and is the goal for covid elimination. 0.6 old variant R follows from this.
This project is not intended as a data source. Please refer to these sources:
- Historical rates: New York Times (https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/master/us-states.csv)
- R0 projection based on historical rates: Epiforecasts: https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/united-states/
- Paper for epiforecasts method: "Estimating the time-varying reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 using national and subnational case counts", Abbot et. al, https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-112/v1
- B117 variant percent: Helix: https://public.tableau.com/profile/helix6052#!/vizhome/SGTFDashboard/SGTFDashboard
- Growth rate for new variant (~50% higher transmission): Martina Reichmuth et al 2021, "Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Switzerland", https://ispmbern.github.io/covid-19/variants/