Python code for the estimation of political regime transition matrices
This code accompanies the manuscript: Quantifying the end of history through a Bayesian Markov-chain approach Royal Society Open Science (2022) by Florian Klimm Journal arXiv:2211.01955
It allows the reproduction of all figures and results in the manuscript. In particular, this includes
- inference of Markov-chain transition probabilities from time-series data
- computation of expected regime changes under this Markov model
- estimation of the End of History as steady-state distribution
- estimation of Survival curves
- test the prediction of the Markov model
The associated Jupyter Notebooks are available under /code.
The numerical results and figures are included in /results.
Further analysis, as presented in the Supplementary Material is available under /SupplementaryAnalysis.