/PERdictor

A project for predicting Player Efficiency Rating (PER) for NBA players.

Primary LanguagePython

NBA Player Similarity

A project for predicting Player Efficiency Rating (PER) for NBA players using supervised learning via an LSTM.

Data Source

Methodology

Data

The dataset is a collection of statistics for every player averaged over a regular season. Because of this the model is limited to predicting a players statistics per season.

Each players stats is stored as a 2 dimensional matrix with lengths features x number of seasons. When this data is prepared to be put into the model it adds a dimension for players.

Model

The model chosen for this prediction is an LSTM. LSTMs have been known to perform well for time series predictions.

Layer (Type) Output Shape Param #
lstm_1 (LSTM) (None, None, 64) 20480
dense_1 (Dense) (None, None, 64) 4160
dense_2 (Dense) (None, None, 1) 65

Total params: 24,705

Trainable params: 24,705

Non-trainable params: 0

Results

After training with 30 epochs the model has a loss of 2.884140227940185e-05. But small user checks has shown lackluster, very safe results.

Glossary

Acrynom Term
G Games
GS Games Started
MP Minutes Played
PER Player Efficiency Rating
TS% True Shooting %
3PAr 3-Point Attempt Rate
FTr Free Throw Rate
ORB% Offensive Rebound Percentage
DRB% Defensive Rebound Percentage
TRB% Total Rebound Percentage
AST% Assist Percentage
STL% Steal Percentage
BLK% Block Percentage
TOV% Turnover Percentage
USG% Usage Percentage
OWS Offensive Win Shares
DWS Defensive Win Shares
WS Win Shares
WS/48 Win Shares Per 48 Minutes
OBPM Offensive Box Plus/Minus
DBPM Defensive Box Plus/Minus
BPM Box Plus/Minus
VORP Value Over Replacement
FG Field Goals
FGA Field Goal Attempts
FG% Field Goal Percentage
3P 3-Point Field Goals
3PA 3-Point Field Goal Attempts
3P% 3-Point Field Goal Percentage
2P 2-Point Field Goals
2PA 2-Point Field Goal Attempts
2P% 2-Point Field Goal Percentage
eFG% Effective Field Goal Percentage
FT Free Throws
FTA Free Throw Attempts
FT% Free Throw Percentage
ORB Offensive Rebounds
DRB Defensive Rebounds
TRB Total Rebounds
AST Assists
STL Steals
BLK Blocks
TOV Turnovers
PF Personal Fouls
PTS Points
TOT Total