/Covid_naive_fitting

Fitting simple functions to recent Korean covid confirmed cases

Primary LanguageJupyter Notebook

What is it?

Aims to predict the number of future confirmed cases based on the number of recently confirmed cases in Korea.

Prediction

fitting&predcition

Why skewed Gaussian?

In the SIR model, the number of infected people(I) is shown in the graph below and follows the Erlang distribution. This distribution resembles a skewed Gaussian, and the tail on the left side of the confirmed distribution is too long to fit the Erlang distribution. SIR model