COVID-19 Simulation
This is just a simulation attempt with many assumptions and simplifications. Please take it with a pinch of salt.
Parameters
- population size: UK (66m)
- R0 (reproduction number): 2.5 (no social distancing) and 1.25 (with social distancing)
- latent period (non-infectious period): 2 days on average
- communicability (infectious period): 10 days on average
- hospitalization rate: 4%
- hospitalization period: 10 days on average
- hospital death rate: 20%
- number of hospital beds: 115k
- 90% of the population got infected during the simulation
- Avoidable Deaths - deaths caused by a lack of hospital beds
- 37% of the population got infected during the simulation