/cocos_mpa

Repository for project on Isla Cocos and Bicentenario in Costa Rica with MarViva

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As of Arpil 1st of 2024 this repostiry has been archived as the project is concluded

Climate change and fisheries on the Parque Nacional de Cocos, Costa Rica

Repository for project on Isla Cocos and Bicentenario in Costa Rica with MarViva

Authors

^1^Juliano Palacios Abrantes, ^2^Sarah M. Roberts, ^1^Tayler M. Clarke

^1^Changing Oceans Research Unit, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada ^2^University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, CITY, NC, United States

Objectives

  • Understand the role of Cocos National Park (PNC) and Marine Area Bicentenario (AMM) in the protection of highly migratory and commercialy important fish species.

Time Line (tentative)

  • September 15th, 2023, Gridded MPAs for DBEM (S)
  • September 15th, 2023, Run DBEM for sens analysis (J)
  • September 30th 2023, Results of sensitivity analysis (S+J)
  • September 30th 2023, Final scenario decision (T+M)
  • October, Run DBEM for all scenarios and species (J)
  • November, Analyse results for scenarios (S+J)
  • November/December, Write report (S+J)
  • December,report due date (Hard deadline)

Deliverables

This project is a sub-component of a larger project and will be integrated with a larger report. The report should have a summary of trends for all species aggregated and figures for all species should be avaiable. Specifically we need:

  • Results for each scenario and species
  • mini report with methods, results and description of results.

Specific outputs

  • Estimates of changes in biomass of pelagic fishery species under future climate scenarios.
  • Estimates of potential biomass gains for tuna species resulting from the implementation and expansion of the ACMC.
  • Maps of potential climate refuges and areas of high climate impacts within the ACMC.

Methodology

  • Develop different scenarios with Taylor and MarViva
  • Run a sensitivity analysis to make decision on how to re-distribute fishing effort
  • Integrate MPAs into DBEM grid
  • Run the DBEM under the different scenarios and species
  • Data analysis for report

Scenarios

Scenario 1 (Conservation inclined)

  • PNC, 100% MPA
  • AMM, FMSY = 1/2MSY
  • Everything else F = MSY

Scenario 2 (Fishing inclined)

  • PNC, 100% MPA original
  • AMM, FMSY
  • Everything else F = 1.5MSY

Scenario 3 (IUU inclined)

  • PNC, 90% MPA original and expansion
  • AMM, FMSY1.5
  • Everything else F = 1.5MSY

Overall details

  • Re-distribution of F effort, a sensitivity analysis on re distribution of effort within the PN MPA:
    • Only the perimeter (as in NE Atlantic case)
    • All grid cells of MPA
  • ** Getting species list**, ge a list of important species to model, mostly tunas, sharks and billfishes
  • ** Understand what is the F effort of the region using IATTC parameters and data or literature

Topics to discuss further

  • Area of study, How far we are limiting the region
  • Do we want a no-mpa scenario?
  • Report in English or Spanish?