jrgant/FluHospPrediction

Stratify curve simulation by severity

Closed this issue · 2 comments

Need to stratify the curve simulations to produce two sets of hypothetical influenza hospitalization curves: one for High/Moderate and on for Low severity seasons.

Stratification has been implemented.

However, simulated curves from Low severity seasons somehow have a higher mean hospitalization count than High/Moderate.

Possible issues:

  • Bug that results in function not correctly sampling the specified severity type
  • Issue with the trend filter predictions produced by each historical season (lambda value or other issue)
  • Only 4 low-severity seasons available... too much variance?

We'll be moving this to a sensitivity analysis. The comment above (#2 (comment)) has been addressed.