khoramshahi/worldCup2018_predictions

Predicting the outcome of World Cup 2018 based on Elo rating

World Cup 2018 predicitions

To predic the outcomes, I run 10000 simulations of the world cup 2018 where I use the ELO ratings to determine the result of the remaining games. Learn more about ELO rating here.

I update the predicitoin at the end each day (if there is a game on the day) and I keep track of how things go against the odds.

July 11th

Team	World Champion
France	0.67
Croatia	0.33

What went againts the odds?

England had a slightly higher chance than Crotia, but Cortia goes to the final.

July 10th

Team	Final	World Champion
France	1	0.6065
England	0.5664	0.2414
Croatia	0.4336	0.1521

What went againts the odds?

Nothing!

July 7th

Team	Final	World Champion
France	0.527	0.3311
Belgium	0.473	0.2852
England	0.5704	0.23
Croatia	0.4296	0.1537

What went againts the odds?

Nothing! But it is interestig to see that the chance for England to win the championship increased from 11.3% to 23.0%.

July 6th

Team	Semi Final	Final	World Champion
France	1	0.526	0.3427
Belgium	1	0.474	0.2995
Croatia	0.6772	0.3632	0.1438
England	0.5579	0.3027	0.1133
Sweden	0.4421	0.2184	0.0739
Russia	0.3228	0.1157	0.0268

What went againts the odds?

Elimination of Brazil was not expected (29.2%).

July 3rd

Team	Semi Final	Final	World Champion
Brazil	0.708	0.4828	0.3797
France	0.5679	0.2286	0.1444
Croatia	0.686	0.3758	0.127
England	0.5671	0.3076	0.0964
Uruguay	0.4321	0.1511	0.089
Belgium	0.292	0.1375	0.083
Sweden	0.4329	0.2066	0.0583
Russia	0.314	0.11	0.0222

What went againts the odds?

Switzerland had a higher chance to win (56.1%), but Sweden won the game.

July 2nd

Team	Quarter final	Semi Final	Final	World Champion
Brazil	1	0.7011	0.4854	0.368
France	1	0.5589	0.2233	0.1399
Croatia	1	0.6881	0.3538	0.115
Uruguay	1	0.4411	0.1489	0.0837
Belgium	1	0.2989	0.1424	0.0815
England	0.5082	0.29	0.1698	0.0621
Colombia	0.4918	0.2752	0.1539	0.0579
Switzerland	0.5606	0.2564	0.1367	0.0477
Sweden	0.4394	0.1784	0.0871	0.0256
Russia	1	0.3119	0.0987	0.0186

What went againts the odds?

Nothing!

July 1st

Team	Quarter final	Semi Final	Final	World Champion
Brazil	0.8499	0.6191	0.4188	0.319
France	1	0.5631	0.2428	0.1473
Croatia	1	0.6969	0.3714	0.1378
Uruguay	1	0.4369	0.172	0.0979
Belgium	0.8371	0.3097	0.1501	0.087
England	0.5051	0.2855	0.1598	0.0593
Colombia	0.4949	0.2782	0.1539	0.0562
Switzerland	0.563	0.2549	0.136	0.0447
Sweden	0.437	0.1814	0.0816	0.0244
Russia	1	0.3031	0.0973	0.0205
Mexico	0.1501	0.0528	0.0137	0.005
Japan	0.1629	0.0184	0.0026	0.0009

What went againts the odds?

We were expecting Spain to pass this round with 79.4% which didn't happen.

June 30th

From now on, I will just report the table, the brackets structure stays the same. The following tables show the estimated probabilities (in %) for reaching the different stages.

Team	Quarter final	Semi Final	Final	World Champion
Brazil	0.8498	0.6226	0.4189	0.3068
France	1	0.5626	0.2478	0.1468
Spain	0.7938	0.5011	0.3107	0.1388
Uruguay	1	0.4374	0.1662	0.0866
Belgium	0.84	0.3062	0.1498	0.0792
Croatia	0.591	0.2794	0.1524	0.0571
England	0.5117	0.2882	0.1359	0.0509
Colombia	0.4883	0.2695	0.1319	0.0479
Switzerland	0.5567	0.2567	0.1105	0.0349
Denmark	0.409	0.156	0.0688	0.0222
Sweden	0.4433	0.1856	0.0717	0.0213
Mexico	0.1502	0.0554	0.0153	0.0043
Russia	0.2062	0.0635	0.0181	0.0029
Japan	0.16	0.0158	0.002	0.0003

What went againts the odds?

Portugal (51.94%) had a slightly higher chance compared to Uruguay (48.06%), but Portugal got eliminated. Elimination of Argentina was expected (62.36%).

June 28th

Here is the perdiction by the end of the day:

• numbers are probablities (in %) for each time to show up at a specific location in the brackets.
• I only focus on the 4 most probable teams for each location.
• I highlight the locations where there is an update in the ranking compared to the day before.

What went againts the odds?

Nothing, but now Beligium has a better chance than France to progress.

presence prababilities

The following tables show the estimated probabilities (in %) for reaching the different stages.

Team	Quarter final	Semi Final	Final	World Champion
Brazil	0.8493	0.6108	0.4254	0.3137
Spain	0.7992	0.5015	0.3032	0.1361
Belgium	0.8441	0.3173	0.1626	0.092
France	0.6236	0.3424	0.1508	0.0879
Croatia	0.5929	0.2849	0.1504	0.0569
Portugal	0.5194	0.2617	0.1069	0.0547
Colombia	0.4966	0.2798	0.1378	0.0522
England	0.5034	0.2832	0.1326	0.0489
Uruguay	0.4806	0.2291	0.0833	0.0412
Switzerland	0.5625	0.2605	0.1172	0.0404
Argentina	0.3764	0.1668	0.0525	0.0223
Sweden	0.4375	0.1765	0.0709	0.0222
Denmark	0.4071	0.1526	0.0679	0.0212
Mexico	0.1507	0.0536	0.0157	0.0053
Russia	0.2008	0.061	0.02	0.0045
Japan	0.1559	0.0183	0.0028	0.0005

June 27th

Here is the perdiction by the end of the day:

What went againts the odds?

Maybe the biggest surprise in this world cup. We were expecting Germany to be present in the round of 16 with 86% which didn't happen!

presence prababilities

Team	Round of 16	Quarter final	Semi Final	Final	World Champion
Brazil	1	0.844	0.6142	0.4273	0.3106
Spain	1	0.8027	0.5035	0.3091	0.1388
France	1	0.6286	0.3425	0.1494	0.0848
Belgium	1	0.6814	0.3131	0.1598	0.0759
England	1	0.681	0.3203	0.1596	0.0757
Croatia	1	0.5867	0.2801	0.1547	0.0609
Portugal	1	0.5201	0.2643	0.1076	0.058
Uruguay	1	0.4799	0.2351	0.0855	0.0465
Switzerland	1	0.5652	0.2802	0.1249	0.0411
Colombia	0.684	0.3293	0.1563	0.0768	0.0326
Argentina	1	0.3714	0.1581	0.0494	0.022
Sweden	1	0.4348	0.1882	0.0724	0.0218
Denmark	1	0.4133	0.1552	0.0673	0.0187
Mexico	1	0.156	0.0505	0.0162	0.0052
Russia	1	0.1973	0.0612	0.0189	0.0032
Senegal	0.4415	0.1199	0.0334	0.011	0.0028
Japan	0.8745	0.1884	0.0438	0.0101	0.0014

June 26th

Here is the perdiction by the end of the day:

• Sweden chance to get to F1 is 38.2%

What went againts the odds?

Nothing! most likely events took place. The draw between France and Denmrk lowered France's Elo. This result in lower probabilites for France to win the world cup. However, we should note that both teams alreay made it to the next round and they were happy with the draw. Therefore, we might be suprised by their future performances since their current Elos are slightly biased.

presence prababilities

The following tables show the estimated probabilities (in %) for reaching the different stages.

Team	Round of 16	Quarter final	Semi Final	Final	World Champion
Brazil	0.9014	0.6262	0.4838	0.3574	0.2709
Spain	1	0.7942	0.4969	0.2816	0.1213
Germany	0.869	0.4156	0.288	0.1884	0.119
France	1	0.6238	0.3432	0.1395	0.0786
England	1	0.6902	0.2893	0.1495	0.0645
Belgium	1	0.6775	0.2839	0.14	0.0601
Portugal	1	0.5248	0.2653	0.1003	0.0512
Croatia	1	0.5964	0.2814	0.1355	0.0495
Uruguay	1	0.4752	0.2283	0.0852	0.0418
Switzerland	0.9776	0.4782	0.2425	0.1152	0.0406
Colombia	0.6913	0.33	0.1334	0.0655	0.0282
Mexico	0.7304	0.3316	0.162	0.0721	0.0234
Argentina	1	0.3762	0.1632	0.0491	0.0208
Denmark	1	0.4036	0.1569	0.0654	0.0191
Russia	1	0.2058	0.0648	0.0198	0.0044
Senegal	0.4334	0.1155	0.0278	0.0088	0.0022
Sweden	0.3548	0.0972	0.0338	0.011	0.0019
Japan	0.8753	0.1868	0.0381	0.0098	0.0015
Serbia	0.121	0.0462	0.0167	0.0058	0.0009
South Korea	0.0458	0.005	0.0007	0.0001	0.0001

June 25th

Here is the perdiction by the end of the day:

What went againts the odds?

Nothing! most likely events took place. Only the low performances of Spain and Portugal (or to put differently, the good performances of Iran and Morocco) changed their Elo ratings significantly. Therefore, they have lower probabilites to progress in the world-cup. Especially for portugal. Now, Belgium, Croatia, and Engalnd have better chances to reach the final.

presence prababilities

Team	Round of 16	Quarter final	Semi Final	Final	World Champion
Brazil	0.906	0.6322	0.4894	0.3555	0.2624
Spain	1	0.7994	0.4733	0.2745	0.1198
France	1	0.6765	0.402	0.1962	0.1124
Germany	0.8638	0.4137	0.2826	0.1803	0.1122
Belgium	1	0.6768	0.2799	0.1367	0.0609
Croatia	1	0.6027	0.2961	0.1576	0.0596
England	1	0.6843	0.282	0.1386	0.0574
Portugal	1	0.5241	0.2644	0.0986	0.0501
Uruguay	1	0.4759	0.2249	0.0772	0.037
Switzerland	0.978	0.4742	0.234	0.1031	0.0358
Mexico	0.7345	0.3332	0.1683	0.0729	0.0258
Colombia	0.6855	0.3277	0.1341	0.0652	0.024
Argentina	0.6097	0.2444	0.1132	0.0395	0.0159
Denmark	0.8036	0.3496	0.1398	0.0484	0.0137
Sweden	0.3567	0.1024	0.04	0.0109	0.0034
Russia	1	0.2006	0.0575	0.0141	0.003
Senegal	0.4389	0.1229	0.0344	0.0114	0.0027
Japan	0.8756	0.1883	0.0401	0.0081	0.0013
Serbia	0.116	0.0405	0.0145	0.0043	0.0012
Iceland	0.1373	0.0308	0.0063	0.0013	0.0006
Nigeria	0.253	0.0485	0.0097	0.0015	0.0005
Australia	0.1964	0.0475	0.0128	0.0039	0.0003
South Korea	0.045	0.0038	0.0007	0.0002	0

June 24th

Here is the perdiction by the end of the day:

What went againts the odds?

• The eliminations of Tunisia and Panama didn't have any impact on other predictions.
• Now, Columbia and Japan have higher chances to go the next round but again with no significant effect beyong Round of 16.

presence prababilities

Team	Round of 16	Quarter final	Semi Final	Final	World Champion
Brazil	0.9046	0.6353	0.4875	0.351	0.2595
Spain	0.9907	0.7374	0.4659	0.2653	0.1333
Germany	0.8666	0.4073	0.2748	0.1709	0.1076
France	1	0.6751	0.388	0.1874	0.1047
Portugal	0.7529	0.5172	0.303	0.1551	0.0717
England	1	0.6965	0.2935	0.1409	0.0627
Croatia	1	0.5994	0.2857	0.1504	0.0572
Belgium	1	0.6771	0.2872	0.1333	0.053
Switzerland	0.9777	0.4865	0.2417	0.1008	0.0333
Uruguay	1	0.3792	0.1662	0.0613	0.0243
Colombia	0.686	0.3266	0.1375	0.063	0.0233
Mexico	0.7313	0.3223	0.1584	0.0673	0.022
Argentina	0.6028	0.2411	0.1087	0.0374	0.0161
Denmark	0.7996	0.3554	0.1352	0.0464	0.014
Russia	1	0.2605	0.0848	0.0238	0.0072
Iran	0.2564	0.1057	0.0337	0.0096	0.0032
Sweden	0.3578	0.1032	0.0356	0.0099	0.0025
Serbia	0.1177	0.0413	0.0145	0.0048	0.0016
Senegal	0.4382	0.1201	0.0297	0.0082	0.0014
Japan	0.8758	0.1797	0.039	0.008	0.0009
Australia	0.2004	0.0521	0.0113	0.0029	0.0005
Nigeria	0.256	0.0512	0.0108	0.0014	0
Iceland	0.1412	0.0257	0.0067	0.0008	0
South Korea	0.0443	0.0041	0.0006	0.0001	0

June 23rd

Here is the perdiction by the end of the day:

What went againts the odds?

• Group F changed a bit: Germany's likelihood changed from being F1 to F2

presence prababilities

Team	Round of 16	Quarter final	Semi Final	Final	World Champion
Brazil	0.9004	0.6341	0.5017	0.3574	0.2683
Spain	0.9899	0.7343	0.4574	0.2729	0.1355
France	1	0.6765	0.3886	0.197	0.1122
Germany	0.828	0.3577	0.2467	0.1503	0.0915
Portugal	0.7563	0.5237	0.306	0.1592	0.0785
Croatia	1	0.6067	0.2954	0.1625	0.0609
Belgium	0.9959	0.6668	0.2681	0.1212	0.0517
England	0.9087	0.617	0.2544	0.1181	0.0481
Switzerland	0.9773	0.5157	0.2748	0.1212	0.0405
Uruguay	1	0.3841	0.1672	0.0656	0.027
Mexico	0.7002	0.3011	0.1558	0.0612	0.0175
Argentina	0.6113	0.2457	0.1095	0.0342	0.0155
Colombia	0.4362	0.2181	0.0905	0.039	0.0151
Denmark	0.7921	0.3432	0.1288	0.0427	0.0117
Russia	1	0.2581	0.0874	0.0242	0.0084
Senegal	0.6601	0.212	0.0597	0.0176	0.0043
Sweden	0.4047	0.1376	0.0578	0.0179	0.0041
Poland	0.2973	0.1065	0.0318	0.0122	0.0034
Iran	0.2538	0.0998	0.0305	0.0086	0.0025
Japan	0.6064	0.1519	0.0342	0.0064	0.0013
Serbia	0.1223	0.0476	0.0178	0.0043	0.0008
Australia	0.2079	0.0515	0.012	0.0026	0.0006
Iceland	0.141	0.0266	0.0066	0.0014	0.0003
Nigeria	0.2477	0.0498	0.0106	0.0014	0.0002
Tunisia	0.0383	0.0108	0.0017	0.0003	0.0001
Panama	0.0571	0.0169	0.0033	0.0006	0
South Korea	0.0671	0.0062	0.0017	0	0

June 22nd

Here is the perdiction by the end of the day:

Team	Round of 16	Quarter final	Semi Final	Final	World Champion
Brazil	0.894	0.6651	0.5193	0.3632	0.2706
Spain	0.9898	0.7269	0.4595	0.2672	0.1352
France	1	0.6784	0.3911	0.2038	0.1127
Germany	0.7052	0.3697	0.2593	0.16	0.0938
Portugal	0.7494	0.5111	0.3007	0.155	0.0774
Croatia	1	0.6064	0.2848	0.1527	0.0591
England	0.9009	0.6196	0.2571	0.1233	0.0491
Belgium	0.9257	0.625	0.2563	0.1169	0.049
Mexico	0.8442	0.3694	0.1975	0.0858	0.0313
Uruguay	1	0.3882	0.1759	0.0688	0.0273
Switzerland	0.9725	0.4378	0.224	0.0889	0.0264
Argentina	0.6027	0.2452	0.1054	0.0374	0.0159
Denmark	0.8036	0.3445	0.1336	0.044	0.015
Colombia	0.4515	0.2221	0.0939	0.0409	0.0141
Russia	1	0.2668	0.0894	0.0287	0.0087
Senegal	0.6536	0.2219	0.0613	0.0164	0.0039
Sweden	0.3948	0.0972	0.0367	0.0109	0.0028
Iran	0.2608	0.107	0.0343	0.008	0.0023
Poland	0.2937	0.1062	0.0311	0.0094	0.002
Serbia	0.1335	0.0494	0.0205	0.0058	0.0013
Japan	0.6012	0.1554	0.0333	0.0073	0.0012
Australia	0.1964	0.0477	0.0093	0.0024	0.0004
Nigeria	0.2559	0.0491	0.0094	0.0011	0.0003
Iceland	0.1414	0.0287	0.0066	0.0009	0.0001
Tunisia	0.1095	0.0316	0.0044	0.0005	0.0001
South Korea	0.0558	0.0114	0.0024	0.0006	0
Panama	0.0639	0.0182	0.0029	0.0001	0
Costa Rica	0	0	0	0	0
Peru	0	0	0	0	0
Saudi Arabia	0	0	0	0	0
Morocco	0	0	0	0	0
Egypt	0	0	0	0	0