/random-BB-experiment

can betting on sports perform better than the S&P 500?

random-BB-experiment

can betting on sports perform better than the S&P 500?

Partly inspired by Burton Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street and the Wall Street Goes To Vegas episode from the excellent Planet Money podcast.

The Question

Can a simple sports fan (read: me) beat "Wall Street" returns?

The Hypothesis

Yes.

The Experiment

We'll invest $100 dollars and follow the returns over the course of 6 months. I'll keep track here. If you have questions / issues, please create a GitHub Issue.

Rules here. Full Results here. S&P Portfolio Here.

Current Status As of 2/21/17
S&P $101.31
Bets $56.71
dev

Results

Values are calculated at the start of the day - the day's actions will be reflected in the value the next day.

With $100 invested in the VFINX at start of day on 2/21/17, .459727841 stocks were bought.

Date Price Open Price Close Change Value of S&P Investment Value of Betting Investment Bet Placed Win / Lose Change
2/21/17 $217.52 $218.83 +$0.60 (+0.60%) $100.60 $90.00 Edmonton Oilers (+125) @ Tampa Bay Lightning L -$10.00 (-10.00%)
2/22/17 $218.83 $218.61 -$0.10 (-0.22%) $100.50 $80.00 Boston Bruins (-120) @ Anaheim Ducks L -$10.00 (-11.11%)
2/23/17 $218.61 $218.73 +$0.06 (+0.05%) $100.56 $70.00 New York Rangers @ Toronto Maple Leafs (-115) L -$10.00 (-12.5%)
2/24/17 $218.73 $219.10 +$0.17 (+0.17%) $100.73 $60.00 Boston Celtics (+150) @ Toronto Raptors L -$10.00 (-16.7%)
2/25/17 $219.10 $219.10 N/A $100.73 $65.71 Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat (-175) W +$5.71 (+9.51%)
2/26/17 $219.10 $219.10 N/A $100.73 $55.71 Edmonton Oilers (+115) @ Nashville Predators L -$10.00 (-15.21%)
2/27/17 $219.10 $219.36 +$0.12 (+0.12%) $100.85 $45.71 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Sacramento Kings (+155) L -$10.00 (-17.95%)
2/28/17 $219.36 $218.80 -$0.26 (-0.26%) $100.59 $55.71 Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder (EVEN) W +$10.00 (+21.9%)
3/01/17 $218.80 $221.83 +$1.39 (+1.38%) $101.98 $45.71 Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Clippers (-130) L -$10.00 (-17.9%)
3/02/17 $221.83 $220.55 -$0.59 (-0.58%) $101.39 $35.71 Toronto Maple Leafs (+130) @ Los Angeles Kings L -$10.00 (-21.9%)
3/03/17 $220.55 $220.66 +$0.05 (+0.05%) $101.44 $35.71 N/A N/A N/A
3/04/17 $220.66 $220.66 N/A $101.44 $35.71 N/A N/A N/A
3/05/17 $220.66 $220.66 N/A $101.44 $35.71 N/A N/A N/A
3/06/17 $220.66 $219.94 -$0.33 (-0.32%) $101.11 $35.71 N/A N/A N/A
3/07/17 $219.94 $219.32 -$0.28 (-0.28%) $100.83 $25.71 Washington Wizards @ Phoenix Suns (+185) L -$10.00 (-28.0%)
3/08/17 $219.32 $218.88 -$0.20 (-0.20%) $100.63 $54.21 Boston Celtics (+285) @ Golden State Warriors W +$28.50 (+111.8%)
3/09/17 $218.88 $219.05 +$0.07 (+0.07%) $100.70 $66.71 Los Angeles Clippers (+125) @ Memphis Grizzlies W +$12.50 (+23.1%)
3/10/17 $219.05 $219.77 +$0.33 (+0.32%) $101.03 $66.71 N/A N/A N/A
3/11/17 $219.77 $219.77 N/A $101.03 $66.71 Toronto Raptors (+190) @ Miami Heat L -$10.00 (-15.0%)
3/12/17 $219.77 $219.77 N/A $101.03 $66.71 N/A N/A N/A
3/13/17 $219.77 $219.92 +$0.07 (+0.07%) $101.10 $56.71 Orlando Magic (-105) @ Sacramento Kings L -$10.00 (-14.9%)
3/14/17 $219.92 $219.18 -$0.34 (-0.33%) $100.76 $56.71 N/A N/A N/A
3/15/17 $219.18 $221.03 +$0.85 (+0.84%) $101.61 $56.71 N/A N/A N/A
3/16/17 $221.03 $220.67 -$0.16 (-0.16%) $101.45 $56.71 N/A N/A N/A
3/17/17 $220.67 $220.38 -$0.14 (-0.14%) $101.31 $56.71 N/A N/A N/A
3/18/17 $220.38 $220.38 N/A $101.31 $56.71 N/A N/A N/A
3/19/17 $220.38 $220.38 N/A $101.31 $56.71 N/A N/A N/A
3/20/17 $220.38 $219.95 -$0.19 (-0.19%) $101.12 $70.21 San Jose Sharks @ Dallas Stars (+135) W +$13.50 (+23.8%)
3/21/17 $219.95 $216.27 -$1.69 (-0.17%) $99.43 $70.21 N/A N/A N/A
3/22/17 $216.27 $216.69 +$0.19 (+0.19%) $99.62 $70.21 N/A N/A N/A
3/23/17 $216.69 $216.46 -$0.11 (-0.11%) $99.51 $73.07 Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs (-350) W +$2.86 (+4.1%)
3/24/17 $216.46 $216.28 -$0.08 (-0.08%) $99.43 $73.07 N/A N/A N/A
3/25/17 $216.28 $216.28 N/A $99.43 $84.57 Chicago Blackhawks @ Florida Panthers (+115) W +11.50 (+15.7%)
3/26/17 $216.28 $216.28 N/A $99.43 $84.57 N/A N/A N/A
3/27/17 $216.28 $216.06 -$0.10 (-0.10%) $99.33 $74.57 Nashville Predators @ New York Islanders (-120) L -$10.00 (-11.8%)
3/28/17 $216.06 $217.62 +$0.68 (+0.68%) $100.01 $74.57 N/A N/A N/A
3/29/17 $217.62 $217.90 +$0.16 (+0.16%) $100.17 $74.57 N/A N/A N/A
3/30/17 $217.90 $218.55 +$0.30 (+0.30%) $100.47 $74.57 N/A N/A N/A
3/31/17 $218.55 $218.05 -$0.23 (-0.23%) $100.24 $74.57 N/A N/A N/A
4/1/17 $218.05 $218.05 N/A $100.24 $64.57 Ottawa Senators (+125) @ Winnipeg Jets L -$10.00 (-13.4%)
4/2/17 $218.05 $218.05 N/A $100.24 $64.57 Atlanta Hawks @ Brooklyn Nets (+135) N/A N/A

.459727841