random-BB-experiment
can betting on sports perform better than the S&P 500?
Partly inspired by Burton Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street and the Wall Street Goes To Vegas episode from the excellent Planet Money podcast.
The Question
Can a simple sports fan (read: me) beat "Wall Street" returns?
The Hypothesis
Yes.
The Experiment
We'll invest $100 dollars and follow the returns over the course of 6 months. I'll keep track here. If you have questions / issues, please create a GitHub Issue.
Rules here. Full Results here. S&P Portfolio Here.
Current Status | As of 2/21/17 |
---|---|
S&P | $101.31 |
Bets | $56.71 |
dev |
Results
Values are calculated at the start of the day - the day's actions will be reflected in the value the next day.
With $100 invested in the VFINX at start of day on 2/21/17, .459727841 stocks were bought.
Date | Price Open | Price Close | Change | Value of S&P Investment | Value of Betting Investment | Bet Placed | Win / Lose | Change | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2/21/17 | $217.52 | $218.83 | +$0.60 (+0.60%) | $100.60 | $90.00 | Edmonton Oilers (+125) @ Tampa Bay Lightning | L | -$10.00 (-10.00%) | ||
2/22/17 | $218.83 | $218.61 | -$0.10 (-0.22%) | $100.50 | $80.00 | Boston Bruins (-120) @ Anaheim Ducks | L | -$10.00 (-11.11%) | ||
2/23/17 | $218.61 | $218.73 | +$0.06 (+0.05%) | $100.56 | $70.00 | New York Rangers @ Toronto Maple Leafs (-115) | L | -$10.00 (-12.5%) | ||
2/24/17 | $218.73 | $219.10 | +$0.17 (+0.17%) | $100.73 | $60.00 | Boston Celtics (+150) @ Toronto Raptors | L | -$10.00 (-16.7%) | ||
2/25/17 | $219.10 | $219.10 | N/A | $100.73 | $65.71 | Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat (-175) | W | +$5.71 (+9.51%) | ||
2/26/17 | $219.10 | $219.10 | N/A | $100.73 | $55.71 | Edmonton Oilers (+115) @ Nashville Predators | L | -$10.00 (-15.21%) | ||
2/27/17 | $219.10 | $219.36 | +$0.12 (+0.12%) | $100.85 | $45.71 | Minnesota Timberwolves @ Sacramento Kings (+155) | L | -$10.00 (-17.95%) | ||
2/28/17 | $219.36 | $218.80 | -$0.26 (-0.26%) | $100.59 | $55.71 | Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder (EVEN) | W | +$10.00 (+21.9%) | ||
3/01/17 | $218.80 | $221.83 | +$1.39 (+1.38%) | $101.98 | $45.71 | Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Clippers (-130) | L | -$10.00 (-17.9%) | ||
3/02/17 | $221.83 | $220.55 | -$0.59 (-0.58%) | $101.39 | $35.71 | Toronto Maple Leafs (+130) @ Los Angeles Kings | L | -$10.00 (-21.9%) | ||
3/03/17 | $220.55 | $220.66 | +$0.05 (+0.05%) | $101.44 | $35.71 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
3/04/17 | $220.66 | $220.66 | N/A | $101.44 | $35.71 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
3/05/17 | $220.66 | $220.66 | N/A | $101.44 | $35.71 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
3/06/17 | $220.66 | $219.94 | -$0.33 (-0.32%) | $101.11 | $35.71 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
3/07/17 | $219.94 | $219.32 | -$0.28 (-0.28%) | $100.83 | $25.71 | Washington Wizards @ Phoenix Suns (+185) | L | -$10.00 (-28.0%) | ||
3/08/17 | $219.32 | $218.88 | -$0.20 (-0.20%) | $100.63 | $54.21 | Boston Celtics (+285) @ Golden State Warriors | W | +$28.50 (+111.8%) | ||
3/09/17 | $218.88 | $219.05 | +$0.07 (+0.07%) | $100.70 | $66.71 | Los Angeles Clippers (+125) @ Memphis Grizzlies | W | +$12.50 (+23.1%) | ||
3/10/17 | $219.05 | $219.77 | +$0.33 (+0.32%) | $101.03 | $66.71 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
3/11/17 | $219.77 | $219.77 | N/A | $101.03 | $66.71 | Toronto Raptors (+190) @ Miami Heat | L | -$10.00 (-15.0%) | ||
3/12/17 | $219.77 | $219.77 | N/A | $101.03 | $66.71 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
3/13/17 | $219.77 | $219.92 | +$0.07 (+0.07%) | $101.10 | $56.71 | Orlando Magic (-105) @ Sacramento Kings | L | -$10.00 (-14.9%) | ||
3/14/17 | $219.92 | $219.18 | -$0.34 (-0.33%) | $100.76 | $56.71 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
3/15/17 | $219.18 | $221.03 | +$0.85 (+0.84%) | $101.61 | $56.71 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
3/16/17 | $221.03 | $220.67 | -$0.16 (-0.16%) | $101.45 | $56.71 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
3/17/17 | $220.67 | $220.38 | -$0.14 (-0.14%) | $101.31 | $56.71 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
3/18/17 | $220.38 | $220.38 | N/A | $101.31 | $56.71 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
3/19/17 | $220.38 | $220.38 | N/A | $101.31 | $56.71 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
3/20/17 | $220.38 | $219.95 | -$0.19 (-0.19%) | $101.12 | $70.21 | San Jose Sharks @ Dallas Stars (+135) | W | +$13.50 (+23.8%) | ||
3/21/17 | $219.95 | $216.27 | -$1.69 (-0.17%) | $99.43 | $70.21 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
3/22/17 | $216.27 | $216.69 | +$0.19 (+0.19%) | $99.62 | $70.21 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
3/23/17 | $216.69 | $216.46 | -$0.11 (-0.11%) | $99.51 | $73.07 | Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs (-350) | W | +$2.86 (+4.1%) | ||
3/24/17 | $216.46 | $216.28 | -$0.08 (-0.08%) | $99.43 | $73.07 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
3/25/17 | $216.28 | $216.28 | N/A | $99.43 | $84.57 | Chicago Blackhawks @ Florida Panthers (+115) | W | +11.50 (+15.7%) | ||
3/26/17 | $216.28 | $216.28 | N/A | $99.43 | $84.57 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
3/27/17 | $216.28 | $216.06 | -$0.10 (-0.10%) | $99.33 | $74.57 | Nashville Predators @ New York Islanders (-120) | L | -$10.00 (-11.8%) | ||
3/28/17 | $216.06 | $217.62 | +$0.68 (+0.68%) | $100.01 | $74.57 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
3/29/17 | $217.62 | $217.90 | +$0.16 (+0.16%) | $100.17 | $74.57 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
3/30/17 | $217.90 | $218.55 | +$0.30 (+0.30%) | $100.47 | $74.57 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
3/31/17 | $218.55 | $218.05 | -$0.23 (-0.23%) | $100.24 | $74.57 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
4/1/17 | $218.05 | $218.05 | N/A | $100.24 | $64.57 | Ottawa Senators (+125) @ Winnipeg Jets | L | -$10.00 (-13.4%) | ||
4/2/17 | $218.05 | $218.05 | N/A | $100.24 | $64.57 | Atlanta Hawks @ Brooklyn Nets (+135) | N/A | N/A |
.459727841