Analysis for Dudo/Perudo game.
Language: Python
Start: 2024
I recently played Dudo (aka Perudo) for the first time. I wanted to calculate probability of the numeric claim, e.g. when a player says "three 6s", and the paco (Dudo wild card) claim, e.g. when a player says "two pacos". The final goal is to identify the best strategy to call the "doubt".
The probability for both claims can be calculated using the binomial formula:
The probability formula for the numeric claim is:
where n is the number claimed, m is the number of dice in the game and 1/3 comes out of 2 / 6 (1 for the numeric value and 1 for the paco).
The probability formula for the paco claim is:
where n is the number of pacos claimed and m is the number of dice in the game.
Here is a bar plot showing the probability of numeric claims when there are 20 dice in the game:
The chart and the previous formulas do not consider the knowledge that a player has regarding their own dice. A correction is implemented in the Excel file for that.
I implemented the formulas in Excel. In the future, I want to write a Python code to simulate the best strategy among players applying different probability thresholds to their "doubt".